DiDi(US:DIDIY) 3 6 Ke·2025-05-26 00:54Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry in China is experiencing a bifurcation, with second-tier platforms pushing for IPOs while facing market saturation and profitability challenges [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Activity - On April 30, Cao Cao Travel updated its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - On May 9, Enjoy Travel, a subsidiary of SAIC Group, announced it had completed a C-round financing of 1.3 billion yuan, marking the largest single financing in the industry in nearly three years, and is accelerating its IPO process [2]. - Other second-tier platforms, such as T3 Travel and Shengwei Times, are also at critical junctures in their IPO plans, with T3's CEO indicating that the IPO timeline is imminent [5]. Group 2: Market Saturation and Profitability Issues - Shengwei Times' IPO prospectus became invalid due to ongoing losses and regulatory penalties, highlighting the profitability struggles within the industry [3]. - The market is characterized by a "pyramid" competition structure, with Didi holding over 70% market share, while other players are fragmented into four distinct factions [3][7]. - Cao Cao Travel's reliance on third-party platforms for 85% of its orders indicates a shift from self-sourced to aggregated orders, raising concerns about profitability [5][12]. Group 3: Dependency on Aggregation Platforms - The increasing dependency on aggregation platforms has led to a significant rise in commission payments, with Cao Cao's commission expenses growing from 322 million yuan in 2022 to 1.046 billion yuan in 2024 [17][18]. - The share of orders from third-party platforms for Cao Cao has increased from 49.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2024, indicating a shift in the operational model [14][15]. - User retention rates are declining, with Cao Cao reporting a drop in user retention to below 28% in 2023 due to increased reliance on third-party platforms [19][21]. Group 4: Differentiation Strategies - To achieve higher valuations, second-tier platforms are attempting to tell differentiated stories, such as Cao Cao's focus on customized vehicles leveraging its parent company, Geely's resources [22][23]. - Enjoy Travel is pursuing a mixed operation model that includes Robotaxi services, although its commercial progress has been slow [24][25]. - The competition in the autonomous driving sector is intense, with significant barriers to entry, and the success of these strategies remains uncertain [25][28].