Macroeconomic Overview - The international political and economic landscape experienced significant turbulence last week, with Trump announcing a 50% tariff on the EU starting in June, leading to a surge in gold prices and a sharp decline in the euro. The EU is preparing a countermeasure worth €95 billion [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to add $2.3 trillion to $3.3 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, raising market concerns about U.S. debt risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's independence was supported by a Supreme Court ruling, but there are notable divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between Israel and Iran, with Israel's military actions drawing international condemnation. Trump's mediation efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine faced setbacks [1] - This week, market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's policy minutes, expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, economic data from Europe and the U.S., and OPEC+ production plans, amidst ongoing trade tensions, debt risks, and geopolitical conflicts [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, reaching a high of 99.917 and a low of 99.019, closing at 99.078. The market experienced a significant decline, indicating a bearish outlook [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 101.70, suggesting a bearish trend in the medium term. Key resistance on the daily chart is at 100.30, with further pressure expected below this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices generally increased last Friday, peaking at 3365.76 and closing at 3359.92. The price action indicates a bullish trend, supported by previous resistance levels [4] - An analysis of multiple timeframes shows that gold is supported at the 3160 level on the weekly chart, with a bullish outlook unless this support is broken. Daily support is at 3280, and short-term support is at 3323-3324 [5][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1277 and a high of 1.1375, closing at 1.1364. The market demonstrated strong bullish momentum, particularly after breaking through key resistance levels [8] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates long-term bullish sentiment, with support at 1.0800 on the monthly chart and 1.1090 on the weekly chart. The daily chart shows a recent upward breakout, maintaining bullish expectations [8]
闫瑞祥：黄金关注后续趋势线得失，欧美强势上涨