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零跑汽车(09863.HK):毛利率超预期 国内外双轮驱动长期成长

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded expectations in Q1 2025 with a significant increase in revenue and gross margin, driven by strong sales growth, product optimization, and strategic partnerships [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187.1%, primarily due to a 162% increase in sales volume to 87,552 vehicles and a 4.9% increase in revenue per vehicle [1] - The gross margin for Q1 reached 14.9%, recovering from a -1.4% margin year-on-year and improving by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to scale effects from increased sales, cost control, product structure optimization, and strategic collaborations [1] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, with a net loss rate of 1.3% [1] - For Q2, the company anticipates sales of 130,000 to 140,000 vehicles and aims for a break-even net profit [1] - The full-year forecast for 2025 includes sales of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, a gross margin of 10% to 12%, and a break-even net profit [1] Group 2: Product and Sales Strategy - The company is in a strong product cycle, with the B10 model launched on April 10, priced between 99,800 and 129,800 yuan, and has already delivered over 10,000 units within 40 days [1] - The C series models are undergoing upgrades, with the C10 facelift launched in May and further models expected in June and July, enhancing the company's platform advantages and potentially improving gross margins [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company has established 756 sales stores and 449 service centers nationwide, aiming to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of 2025, with a 50% year-on-year increase in single-store efficiency [1] Group 3: International Expansion - From January to April, the company exported 13,632 vehicles, ranking first among new forces in the market, with April overseas sales reaching 3,000 units [2] - The current overseas models include T03 and C10, with plans to introduce the B10 model later in the year [2] - The company has established over 500 sales and service points internationally, with a significant presence in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [2] - A local assembly project for the C10 model in Malaysia is expected to start by the end of 2025, with plans for localized manufacturing in Europe by mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with FAW and a project cooperation agreement with Stellantis' subsidiary, which is expected to enhance its self-research capabilities and reduce costs [3] - Ongoing discussions with other brands for additional projects are anticipated to further expand the company's growth potential [3] - The adjusted sales forecasts for 2025-2027 are approximately 550,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles, with total revenues projected at 60 billion, 84.6 billion, and 99.8 billion yuan respectively [3]