海底捞(06862.HK)：稳中求进 积极进取

Core Insights - The company is optimizing its operational model through a multi-dimensional approach, focusing on product, scene, and management improvements [1] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan is showing positive results, with significant brand incubation and expansion efforts [1][2] Group 1: Operational Model Optimization - The company employs a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strictly controls franchisee entry standards, optimizing its operational model across three dimensions: product, scene, and management [1] - In the product dimension, the company plans to focus on fresh-cut meat and seasonal series by 2025 [1] - The scene dimension will see an emphasis on expanding themed stores and corporate park locations [1] - Management improvements include implementing a dual management store model and a dedicated customer manager system [1] Group 2: Franchise Development - The company will launch its franchise program in March 2024, with a rigorous selection mechanism that includes qualification reviews, operational capability assessments, and long-term development compatibility evaluations [1] - As of the end of 2024, 13 franchise stores have been established, with a strong management model to ensure service quality and standardization [1] Group 3: Brand Incubation and Growth - The "Red Pomegranate" plan, initiated in 2024, encourages the incubation of new brands, resulting in the establishment of 11 restaurant brands and 74 stores by the end of 2024 [1] - This initiative is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [1] Group 4: Digital and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company is leveraging big data and AI technology to enhance customer satisfaction and reduce churn rates through an AI-driven post-meal evaluation system [2] - The self-developed "HiHi System" app has achieved over 20,000 monthly clicks, and the deployment of over 50 AI robots is improving efficiency across customer service and supply chain operations [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company anticipates net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.87 billion, 5.03 billion, and 5.27 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.44%, 3.27%, and 4.77% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87, 0.90, and 0.95 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.90x, 15.40x, and 14.70x [2]