高盛继续化身“原油大空头”：“供应过剩”难以避免 油价将跌至2026年

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will remain low and weak in 2025-2026 compared to current levels [1] - The firm has consistently taken a bearish stance on oil prices, citing an oversupply in the market and a potential peak in U.S. shale oil production occurring earlier and at lower levels than previously expected [1][2] - Other major Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, share similar forecasts of significant oversupply in the oil market leading to declining prices through 2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2025 and $55 in 2026, while WTI is expected to average $56 and $51 respectively [2] - In a scenario of a typical U.S. economic recession and moderate OPEC production increases, Brent prices could drop to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026 [2] - If global GDP slows significantly and OPEC maintains moderate production increases, Brent prices could fall to $54 and $45 by the same dates [2] Group 3 - Analysis of President Trump's social media activity indicates a preference for oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel, which may influence market sentiment [3] - Concerns over potential increases in OPEC+ supply have contributed to a decline in Brent crude prices, which recently fell to around $64.5 per barrel [3] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global energy demand, further impacting oil prices [5] Group 4 - The international oil market is currently in a sensitive phase, with mixed factors affecting supply and demand [5] - Potential cautious signals from OPEC+ regarding production increases could provide temporary support for oil prices [5] - Traders are awaiting further policy developments from the Trump administration and OPEC+ capacity signals to assess the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year [5]