BILIBILI(US:BILI) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-05-27 08:28Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on Bilibili and updates its forecasts following the company's Q1 2025 earnings release and non-deal roadshow [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Goldman Sachs expresses optimism about Bilibili's gaming business, particularly with the unexpected relaunch of the game "Shining! Yujun Girl" on May 22, 2023, after a long suspension, estimating annual revenue of 500 million RMB for the game [2] - The upcoming anniversary celebration for "Romance of the Three Kingdoms: Fantasy Continent" is expected to act as a catalyst for improved performance, with significant gameplay changes planned for the new S8 season [2][5] - Management indicates that the revenue from the seventh season of "Romance of the Three Kingdoms: Fantasy Continent" remained stable compared to the sixth season, with expectations for improvement in the eighth season due to enhanced monetization and new gameplay [5] Group 2: Advertising Business - Bilibili continues to be one of the faster-growing platforms in China's advertising market, with significant potential for monetization through increased ad load and effective cost per thousand impressions (eCPM) [2] - The top five advertising sectors in Q1 2025 were games, internet services (including AI), e-commerce, digital appliances, and automotive [12] - Effective advertising saw the fastest growth in Q1 2025, increasing by 30-40% year-over-year, now accounting for over 50% of total ad revenue [13] Group 3: Financial Flexibility and Profitability - Following the earnings release, Bilibili completed a $690 million convertible bond issuance and a $100 million stock buyback, which may enhance financial flexibility and support future investments in game studios [3] - Management aims for a long-term gross margin of 40-45% and an adjusted operating margin of 15-20%, focusing on a favorable revenue structure and operational leverage [15] - The gaming business is expected to achieve a comprehensive gross margin of 60-70%, while the advertising business is projected to maintain a gross margin above 60% [15][16]