记者｜黎雨桐 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜张楠 北京时间3月21日，美股三大指数集体收跌。道指跌0.96%，本周累跌2.11%，连续四周下跌， 创下自2023年2月以来最长的周线连跌纪录；纳指跌2.01%；标普500指数跌1.51%。 欧洲主要股指收盘普跌。德国DAX 30指数跌2%，法国CAC40指数跌1.82%；意大利MIB指数 跌1.97%；英国富时100指数跌1.44%。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 45577.47 | 21647.61 | 6506.48 | | -443.96 -0.96% -443.08 -2.01% -100.01 -1.51% | | | | 美国科技七巨头 中概科技龙头 | | 中国金龙 | | 59068.36 | 3623.68 | 6742.84 | | -1226.84 -2.03% -92.11 -2.48% -202.55 -2.92% | | | | 道琼斯期货 | 纳斯达克100期 | 标普500期货 | | 46110 | 24217.25 | 6588.50 | | -231 -0.50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development of key projects along the Yangpu Riverside in Shanghai, highlighting the completion of the Bingjiang Chuangzhi Center and projects from Meituan, Bilibili, and Douyin, which together create an innovative and vibrant area akin to a "tropical rainforest" [2] Group 1: Meituan Shanghai Technology Center - The Meituan Shanghai Technology Center is located in the core area of the Yangpu Riverside, covering approximately 52,000 square meters with a total construction area of 450,000 square meters and a total investment of 10.6 billion RMB [6] - The design, by gmp architects, focuses on a "technology module" concept, featuring four high-rise towers (A Tower at 180 meters, D Tower at 150 meters, B Tower at 75 meters, and C Tower at 50 meters) arranged in a "口" shape, interconnected by seven sky bridges and two underground passages [6] Group 2: Bilibili New Generation Industrial Park - The Bilibili New Generation Industrial Park is situated in Yangpu District, covering about 125,500 square meters with a total construction area of 785,000 square meters and a total investment of 19.85 billion RMB [11] - Designed by Ennead Architects, the park is inspired by the "Neverland" from J.M. Barrie's novel, featuring a 150-meter headquarters building, multiple standalone offices, a rental residential building, a cultural theater converted from an old shipyard, and approximately 140,000 square meters of commercial space, accommodating around 10,000 employees [11][12] Group 3: Douyin Group Shanghai Riverside Center - The Douyin Group Shanghai Riverside Center is located in Yangpu District, with a total investment of about 5 billion RMB, covering an area of 22,000 square meters and a total construction area of 115,000 square meters [17] - The project, designed by Foster + Partners and Shanghai Architectural Design Institute, integrates office, commercial, and cultural exhibition functions, including a 12,000 square meter commercial complex and a 3,000 square meter performance center, while preserving 5,600 square meters of industrial heritage from the original shipyard [17]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Bilibili (BILI.US) and Bilibili-W (09626) to "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The target price for Bilibili's US stock is raised from $27 to $35, while the target price for its Hong Kong stock is increased from HKD 210 to HKD 270 [1] - The report suggests that investors should take advantage of the current low stock price, as the company's strategy to increase AI investments is deemed correct [1] - AI has already become a driving factor for user engagement and advertising revenue growth, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years [1] - The company is projected to achieve steady profit growth this year, supported by strong operational leverage, even with AI investments [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 25% in 2025, accelerating to 41% and 30% in 2027 and 2028, respectively [1] - A recent reduction in App Store commission rates by Apple is anticipated to positively impact several of Bilibili's business segments, with an estimated positive effect of about 3% [1]

3月19日，亚太主要股指集体飘绿。沪指一度失守4000点关口，为1月5日以来首次；日经225指数跌超3%，韩国综合指数跌近 3%，澳洲标普200指数创去年11月以来收盘新低。 记者丨曾静娇 编辑丨刘雪莹 截至收盘，上证指数跌幅收窄至1.39%，深成指、科创综指跌超2%，创业板指跌超1%。全市约500股上涨，超4900股下跌。 具体来看，有色金属、石化、化肥农药、锂矿、稀土跌幅居前。 其中宏桥控股、威领股份、利民股份跌停， 兴业银锡、永兴材 料等多股跌超8%， 中金黄金、兴业银锡纷纷大跌。 黄金股大跌， 紫金矿业、中金黄金、山金国际等多股跌超7%； 港股黄金概念同步重挫。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，美国联邦储备委员会18日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。这一决定 符合市场预期。 备受关注的"点阵图"显示， 委员们普遍预计今年将降息一次，并在2027年再降息一次，但具体时点仍不明确。 此外， 鲍威尔 表示，短期内能源价格上涨将推高整体通胀，但相关影响的范围和持续时间仍存在较大不确定性。 若通胀无进展，将不会降 息。 与此同时，随着更多中东能源基础设施遇袭，3月18日美股三大指数大幅 ...

Core Insights - Investors are exploring strategies to select stocks that are resilient against current macroeconomic challenges such as war, rising oil prices, and the potential impact of AI on various industries [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The stock market is currently experiencing turbulence due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices [1] - The threat of AI disrupting traditional business models is also a significant concern for investors [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology sectors, having worked on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, and has advised several seed-round startups [1] - He has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, indicating a strong presence in the investment community [1]

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4981 期 2026 年 3 月 17 日 星期二 研究观点 【公司研究】 宁德时代（3750，买入）:业绩超预期，单位电池盈利稳定 哔哩哔哩（BILI.US/9626.HK，买入）：盈利元年已至，AI 与生态共振开启价值重估 【公司评论】 腾讯（700.HK）2025 年业绩前瞻 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 三月策略（一） 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 宁德时代 | 3750 | 买入 买入 725.00 | 623.00 | | 16% | 17.582 | 16.739 | 5% | 22.644 | 20.9 ...

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy for both CATL (3750) and Bilibili (BILI) [3][20] - Target Price: CATL's target price is set at 725 HKD, representing an 11% upside from the current price [11]. Bilibili's target price is 38.00 USD, indicating a potential increase of 50.8% [20] - Market Capitalization: CATL has a market cap of 3 trillion HKD, while Bilibili's market cap is 10.54 billion USD [6][13] Group 2 - CATL's 2025 Performance: The company achieved a revenue of 423.7 billion RMB, a 17% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 72.2 billion RMB, up 42.3% [7]. The gross margin improved to 26.3% [7] - Battery Market Share: CATL's market share in the global battery market reached 39.2%, maintaining its position as the world's largest battery manufacturer for nine consecutive years [8] - Bilibili's Revenue Growth: Bilibili reported a total revenue of 30.35 billion RMB in 2025, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, and achieved its first annual GAAP profit [16][20] Group 3 - CATL's R&D Investment: The company invested 22.15 billion RMB in R&D, a 19.02% increase, focusing on new battery technologies and solutions [10] - Bilibili's Advertising Revenue: The advertising revenue for Q4 reached 3.04 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, benefiting from improved efficiency and expanded scenarios [17] - User Growth for Bilibili: The average daily active users (DAU) reached 112 million, an 8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $38.00, representing a potential upside of approximately 50.8% from the current price [2][19][20]. Core Insights - The company has reached a profitability milestone, achieving its first full-year GAAP profit in fiscal year 2025, with a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB and a gross margin improvement over 14 consecutive quarters [4][6]. - The report highlights the significant role of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency and content production, marking a strategic shift towards AI-driven growth [5][6][9]. - User engagement metrics are showing positive trends, with a daily active user (DAU) average of 112 million and a monthly active user (MAU) average of 368 million, both reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4, total revenue reached 8.32 billion RMB, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 13.1% for the full year 2025, reaching 30.35 billion RMB, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of 2.59 billion RMB [4][18]. - The advertising revenue for Q4 grew by 27% year-over-year to 3.04 billion RMB, driven by improved efficiency and expanded advertising scenarios [4][10]. Business Segment Analysis - The advertising segment is identified as the primary growth driver, with a projected annual revenue of 10.06 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase [4][10]. - The gaming segment is in a transitional phase, with a forecasted revenue of 6.39 billion RMB for 2025, despite a 14% decline in Q4 due to high base effects from previous releases [4][14]. - The value-added services (VAS) segment is expected to generate 11.9 billion RMB in 2025, supported by stable contributions from membership subscriptions and new content formats like video podcasts [8][18]. User Engagement and Ecosystem Development - The average user age has increased to 26 years, indicating a stable retention of the original user base as they transition into the workforce [7]. - The platform has over 28.4 million premium members, with a retention rate of approximately 80%, providing a predictable cash flow base for value-added services [7][8]. - The creator ecosystem is thriving, with nearly 3 million content creators earning income through the platform, and a 21% year-over-year increase in average income per creator [7][8]. AI and Advertising Efficiency - AI tools are significantly enhancing the advertising capabilities of the platform, with automation penetration exceeding 50% and double-digit improvements in conversion efficiency [10][11]. - The demand for AI-driven advertising has surged, with a year-over-year increase of over 150% in ad spending within the AI application sector [10][11]. - The introduction of AI-generated content is expected to further enhance user engagement and advertising effectiveness, creating a positive feedback loop between content supply and advertising demand [12][13]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue CAGR of 9.9% from 2026 to 2028, with projected revenues of 34 billion RMB in 2026 and 40.32 billion RMB in 2028 [18]. - Non-GAAP net profits are expected to reach 3.2 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit margins improving to 9% [18]. - The financial strategy includes increasing R&D investments in AI by 500-1,000 million RMB in 2026, which is expected to positively impact profit margins in the following years [15].

嗶哩嗶哩（BILI.US/9626.HK） 更新報告 盈利元年已至，AI 與生態共振開啟價值重估 | 盈利摘要 | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | | 來源: 公司資料, 第一上海預測 | 來源: 彭博 | 買入 2026 年 3 月 16 日 呂彥辛 852-25321539 Alexandra.lyu@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 | 行業 | TMT | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股價 | 25.2 美元/197.2 | 港元 | | 目標價 | 38 美元/297 港元 | | | | （+50.8%/50.6%） | | | 股票代碼 | BILI US/9626 HK | | | 總股數 | 4.15 億股 | | | 市值 | 105.84 億美元 | | | 52 周高/低 | 36.4 美元/14.47 | 美元 | | 每股帳面值 | 5.47 美元 | | | 主要股東 | 陳睿 11.58% | | | | 騰訊 | 10.55% | | | 徐逸 | 6.61% | | | NBIM | 4.06% | 第一上海證券有限公司 ww ...

2025年12月的一天，一位来自山东的MCN机构负责人受邀参与"漫步杨浦滨江"的活动，走在滨江线上，抬头望着不远处正在收尾的几栋建筑，塔吊还未 完全撤场，但美团、B站、抖音的三个总部项目已轮廓初显。他当下感慨：如果入驻与Bilibili总部仅一街之隔的V聚场，UP主资源的对接成本将大幅降低， 内容创作的协同效率则成倍提升。 这种 " 隔壁就是客户，楼下就是场景 " 的产业密度，让他很快做出了落地的决定。 杨浦大桥两侧，塔吊林立，三大项目比邻而居。这并非偶然的物理集聚，而是一场精心布局的产业协奏。美团的上海科技中心将承载其本地生活、即时物流 等核心业务；B站的新世代产业园里，UP主创作街区将形成线上线下联动的社区生态；抖音集团上海滨江中心则聚焦短视频、直播电商等内容业态。按照规 划，这些总部项目并非封闭的园区，而是面向公众开放的商业综合体——会议中心、艺术中心、展览中心、公园中心交织其中[1]。 在杨浦的叙事里，这种状态被称为"热带雨林式的创新活力场"——既有抖音、B站这样的参天大树，也有无数中小企业在林下生长，共享阳光雨露[2]。 AI制作的宣传片 更细节的举措则体现了对"人"的理解。在杨浦的人才服务体系中， ...