新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4981 期 2026 年 3 月 17 日 星期二 研究观点 【公司研究】 宁德时代（3750，买入）:业绩超预期，单位电池盈利稳定 哔哩哔哩（BILI.US/9626.HK，买入）：盈利元年已至，AI 与生态共振开启价值重估 【公司评论】 腾讯（700.HK）2025 年业绩前瞻 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——First Call 三月策略（一） 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 宁德时代 | 3750 | 买入 买入 725.00 | 623.00 | | 16% | 17.582 | 16.739 | 5% | 22.644 | 20.9 ...

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy for both CATL (3750) and Bilibili (BILI) [3][20] - Target Price: CATL's target price is set at 725 HKD, representing an 11% upside from the current price [11]. Bilibili's target price is 38.00 USD, indicating a potential increase of 50.8% [20] - Market Capitalization: CATL has a market cap of 3 trillion HKD, while Bilibili's market cap is 10.54 billion USD [6][13] Group 2 - CATL's 2025 Performance: The company achieved a revenue of 423.7 billion RMB, a 17% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 72.2 billion RMB, up 42.3% [7]. The gross margin improved to 26.3% [7] - Battery Market Share: CATL's market share in the global battery market reached 39.2%, maintaining its position as the world's largest battery manufacturer for nine consecutive years [8] - Bilibili's Revenue Growth: Bilibili reported a total revenue of 30.35 billion RMB in 2025, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, and achieved its first annual GAAP profit [16][20] Group 3 - CATL's R&D Investment: The company invested 22.15 billion RMB in R&D, a 19.02% increase, focusing on new battery technologies and solutions [10] - Bilibili's Advertising Revenue: The advertising revenue for Q4 reached 3.04 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, benefiting from improved efficiency and expanded scenarios [17] - User Growth for Bilibili: The average daily active users (DAU) reached 112 million, an 8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $38.00, representing a potential upside of approximately 50.8% from the current price [2][19][20]. Core Insights - The company has reached a profitability milestone, achieving its first full-year GAAP profit in fiscal year 2025, with a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB and a gross margin improvement over 14 consecutive quarters [4][6]. - The report highlights the significant role of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency and content production, marking a strategic shift towards AI-driven growth [5][6][9]. - User engagement metrics are showing positive trends, with a daily active user (DAU) average of 112 million and a monthly active user (MAU) average of 368 million, both reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4, total revenue reached 8.32 billion RMB, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 13.1% for the full year 2025, reaching 30.35 billion RMB, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of 2.59 billion RMB [4][18]. - The advertising revenue for Q4 grew by 27% year-over-year to 3.04 billion RMB, driven by improved efficiency and expanded advertising scenarios [4][10]. Business Segment Analysis - The advertising segment is identified as the primary growth driver, with a projected annual revenue of 10.06 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase [4][10]. - The gaming segment is in a transitional phase, with a forecasted revenue of 6.39 billion RMB for 2025, despite a 14% decline in Q4 due to high base effects from previous releases [4][14]. - The value-added services (VAS) segment is expected to generate 11.9 billion RMB in 2025, supported by stable contributions from membership subscriptions and new content formats like video podcasts [8][18]. User Engagement and Ecosystem Development - The average user age has increased to 26 years, indicating a stable retention of the original user base as they transition into the workforce [7]. - The platform has over 28.4 million premium members, with a retention rate of approximately 80%, providing a predictable cash flow base for value-added services [7][8]. - The creator ecosystem is thriving, with nearly 3 million content creators earning income through the platform, and a 21% year-over-year increase in average income per creator [7][8]. AI and Advertising Efficiency - AI tools are significantly enhancing the advertising capabilities of the platform, with automation penetration exceeding 50% and double-digit improvements in conversion efficiency [10][11]. - The demand for AI-driven advertising has surged, with a year-over-year increase of over 150% in ad spending within the AI application sector [10][11]. - The introduction of AI-generated content is expected to further enhance user engagement and advertising effectiveness, creating a positive feedback loop between content supply and advertising demand [12][13]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue CAGR of 9.9% from 2026 to 2028, with projected revenues of 34 billion RMB in 2026 and 40.32 billion RMB in 2028 [18]. - Non-GAAP net profits are expected to reach 3.2 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit margins improving to 9% [18]. - The financial strategy includes increasing R&D investments in AI by 500-1,000 million RMB in 2026, which is expected to positively impact profit margins in the following years [15].

嗶哩嗶哩（BILI.US/9626.HK） 更新報告 盈利元年已至，AI 與生態共振開啟價值重估 | 盈利摘要 | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | | 來源: 公司資料, 第一上海預測 | 來源: 彭博 | 買入 2026 年 3 月 16 日 呂彥辛 852-25321539 Alexandra.lyu@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 | 行業 | TMT | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股價 | 25.2 美元/197.2 | 港元 | | 目標價 | 38 美元/297 港元 | | | | （+50.8%/50.6%） | | | 股票代碼 | BILI US/9626 HK | | | 總股數 | 4.15 億股 | | | 市值 | 105.84 億美元 | | | 52 周高/低 | 36.4 美元/14.47 | 美元 | | 每股帳面值 | 5.47 美元 | | | 主要股東 | 陳睿 11.58% | | | | 騰訊 | 10.55% | | | 徐逸 | 6.61% | | | NBIM | 4.06% | 第一上海證券有限公司 ww ...

2025年12月的一天，一位来自山东的MCN机构负责人受邀参与"漫步杨浦滨江"的活动，走在滨江线上，抬头望着不远处正在收尾的几栋建筑，塔吊还未 完全撤场，但美团、B站、抖音的三个总部项目已轮廓初显。他当下感慨：如果入驻与Bilibili总部仅一街之隔的V聚场，UP主资源的对接成本将大幅降低， 内容创作的协同效率则成倍提升。 这种 " 隔壁就是客户，楼下就是场景 " 的产业密度，让他很快做出了落地的决定。 杨浦大桥两侧，塔吊林立，三大项目比邻而居。这并非偶然的物理集聚，而是一场精心布局的产业协奏。美团的上海科技中心将承载其本地生活、即时物流 等核心业务；B站的新世代产业园里，UP主创作街区将形成线上线下联动的社区生态；抖音集团上海滨江中心则聚焦短视频、直播电商等内容业态。按照规 划，这些总部项目并非封闭的园区，而是面向公众开放的商业综合体——会议中心、艺术中心、展览中心、公园中心交织其中[1]。 在杨浦的叙事里，这种状态被称为"热带雨林式的创新活力场"——既有抖音、B站这样的参天大树，也有无数中小企业在林下生长，共享阳光雨露[2]。 AI制作的宣传片 更细节的举措则体现了对"人"的理解。在杨浦的人才服务体系中， ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][3] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Apple's commission rate reduction on gaming companies, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [14][15] - The AI sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a focus on self-developed models and vertical integration in cloud and ecosystem services [22][4] E-commerce - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud services are expected to boost token usage and MaaS revenue due to the launch of lightweight cloud servers [4][17] - Meituan's management emphasizes a focus on core local business and AI as a major variable for future growth, while maintaining a significant market share in instant retail [14][15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent's WeChat is projected to continue its strong monetization potential, while Bilibili's advertising growth is expected to lead the internet advertising market [4][18] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is forecasted to accelerate to a 27% growth rate in Q4 2025, benefiting from e-commerce and AI applications [18][4] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][18] Short Videos - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with continued capital investment anticipated in 2026 [4][19] IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is actively releasing and promoting new IPs, with plans to enhance collaboration with overseas designers to penetrate international markets [4][19] Long Videos - The report indicates that membership and advertising revenues in the long video sector are stabilizing, with companies exploring new business opportunities [4][19] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU [4][19] Gaming - The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance, with recommendations for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network, which have strong product pipelines and sustainable growth [20][4] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook into 2026, driven by fundamental performance [20][4] Advertising - The report highlights significant increases in internet advertising investments, particularly for companies like Focus Media, which is expected to benefit from upcoming major events [20][4] AI - The report anticipates a new wave of value reassessment in AI, with a focus on high customer unit prices and increased penetration rates [22][4]

以下文章来源于观点 ，作者刀叨 观点 . 导语：税务风险真实存在，VIE企业的合规大考已经到来。。 保真吗？ 苦等7年，B站终于宣布： 赚钱了。 3月5日，B站发布2025年全年财报，在广告收入首次突破百亿、同比大涨23%的拉动下，公司上市以来第一次实现全年盈利。 独立观点，全球思维，十万emba同学的观点汇集，超越精神世界的广深高速。 财报数 据十分亮眼，2025年总营收303.5亿元，净利润为11.9亿元，调整后净利 润为25.9亿元。 2025年一路走来，B站已经连续三个季度单季盈利，最终扭亏为盈。这对一家坚持长视频、坚持社区氛围的平台来说，可以说是里程碑式的一 刻！ 可诡异的是—— 财报发完第二天， B站股价却跌了4.46%。 | FK 09626 哔哩哔哩-W | | | | 港股 | 美股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 201.200港元 -9.400 -4.46% | | | | | | | ○ 已收盘 03-06 16:00:00 北京时间 | | | | | | | 今井 最高 | 204.800 | | 209.200 | 成交量 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.321 billion yuan this quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%. The breakdown includes: 1) Value-added services revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with over 25.3 million premium members, reflecting a 13% increase; 2) Advertising revenue of 3 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, driven by the release of potential advertising inventory and significant growth in various advertising formats; 3) Game revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year; 4) IP derivatives and other income of 480 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year [1][6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for the company was 880 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 11%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted operating profit was 840 million yuan, with an adjusted operating profit margin rising from 6% to 10% [7][14]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 33.7 billion yuan and 37.3 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 2.2%. An additional revenue forecast for 2028 is set at 41.2 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 are 3.3 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan, with adjustments of -3% and -8% due to increased investments in AI [2][14][19]. - The company’s projected PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 24x, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [2][14]. Operational Data - The company reported a daily active user (DAU) count of 113 million, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and a monthly active user (MAU) count of 366 million, up 8% year-on-year. The average user engagement time was 107 minutes, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [7][14]. - The company has repurchased 14.7 million USD worth of shares this quarter, with a total repurchase amount of 131 million USD since November 2024, leaving approximately 70 million USD remaining in the repurchase program [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.321 billion yuan this quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%. The breakdown includes: 1) Value-added services revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with over 25.3 million premium members, reflecting a 13% increase; 2) Advertising revenue of 3 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, driven by the release of potential advertising inventory and significant growth in various advertising formats; 3) Game revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year; 4) IP derivatives and other income of 480 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year [1][6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for the company was 880 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 11%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted operating profit was 840 million yuan, with an adjusted operating profit margin rising from 6% to 10% [7][14]. - The management indicated that part of the incremental profit will be invested in AI, focusing on enhancing creator productivity and optimizing content recommendation efficiency, which is expected to lead to a profit decline of 500 to 1,000 million yuan in 2026 [1][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 33.7 billion yuan and 37.3 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 3.2% and 2.2%. An additional revenue forecast for 2028 is set at 41.2 billion yuan [2][14]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 3.3 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting decreases of 3% and 8% due to increased investments in AI [2][14]. - The company’s projected PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 24x [2][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][14] Core Views - The company's revenue for the quarter reached 8.321 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8%. The breakdown includes: 1) Value-added services revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with over 25.3 million premium members, a 13% increase year-on-year, and a rapid growth in charging services exceeding 100% year-on-year 2) Advertising revenue of 3 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, driven by the release of potential advertising inventory and significant growth in various advertising scenarios, with some exceeding 200% year-on-year 3) Game revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [1][6][7] - The adjusted net profit for the company was 880 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 11%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted operating profit was 840 million yuan, with an adjusted operating profit margin rising from 6% to 10% [7][14] - The management indicated that part of the incremental profit will be invested in AI, focusing on enhancing creator productivity and optimizing content recommendation efficiency, which is expected to lead to a profit decline of 500 million to 1 billion yuan in 2026 due to increased AI investments [1][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to 33.7 billion yuan and 37.3 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 3.2% and 2.2%. An additional revenue forecast for 2028 is set at 41.2 billion yuan [2][14] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 3.3 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan, with adjustments of -3% and -8% due to increased capital expenditures and talent acquisition in the AI sector. The adjusted net profit for 2028 is projected to be 5.3 billion yuan [2][14] - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of approximately 24x for 2026 [2][14]