每经记者｜杜波 每经编辑｜段炼 记者|杜波 | 美元指数回调，跌破99关口。 | | --- | 编辑|段炼 杜恒峰 校对|何小桃 当地时间3月4日，美股开盘高开低走，道指一度转跌，随后回升。截至发稿，纳指涨1%，道指涨0.42%，标普500涨0.56%。 科技股普遍反弹走高，美光科技、闪迪涨超4%，特斯拉、亚马逊涨近3%，英伟达涨超1%。 | 1 | | 英伟达 | 182.325 | +1.26% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | NVDA | | | | 2 | | 特斯拉 | 403.950 | +2.94% | | | | TSLA | | | | 3 | S | 闪迪 | 590.060 | +4.36% | | | | SNDK | | | | 4 | P | 阿里巴巴 | 133.990 | -1.18% | | | | BABA | | | | 5 | | 美光 | 396.020 | +4.30% | | | | MU | | | | 6 | | 台积电 | 357.155 | +1.14% | | | | TSM | | | | | | 谷歌 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4973 期 2026 年 3 月 4 日 星期三 研究观点 【公司研究】 银河娱乐集团（27，买入）：25 年第四季度 EBITDA 同比增长 33%，派息比率提升到 61% 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 哔哩哔哩（BILI/9626）2025 年业绩前瞻 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 银河娱乐 | 27 | 买入 买入 51.05 | 50.06 | 2% | 2.400 | 2.300 | 4% | 2.600 | 2.600 | 0% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the media and internet industry, indicating a relative performance range of -10% to +10% compared to the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The media index experienced a decline of 5.1% from February 24 to February 27, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1%. The total transaction volume was 336.7 billion yuan, which represents a decrease compared to the previous period [6][7]. - All sub-sectors within the media industry saw declines, with notable performances from individual stocks such as CITIC Publishing, which rose by 38%, and Bona Film Group, which fell by 29% [16]. - The report attributes the market movements to profit-taking ahead of the Spring Festival, AI applications, and high-frequency gaming data [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The media index's performance ranked last among 28 primary industry indices, with a transaction volume of 336.7 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the total A-share market [7][16]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and advertising all experienced significant declines, while broadcasting and publishing showed some resilience [16]. AI Sector - The upcoming launch of Deepseek V4 is anticipated to enhance productivity in AI applications, particularly in the entertainment sector. The report highlights the potential for accelerated token consumption and international narratives [19]. - Key companies to watch in the AI space include Alibaba, Zhiyuan, Minimax, and Kunlun Wanwei, with application-focused firms like Zhejiang Shuju, Shanghai Film, and Aofei Entertainment also recommended [19]. Gaming Sector - The report expresses optimism regarding major gaming titles and a high level of activity in Q1. Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong for A-shares, and Tencent Holdings and Xindong Company for H-shares [19]. IP and Internet - The report forecasts a favorable commercial landscape for IP in the AI era, suggesting a focus on companies like Shanghai Film and Aofei Entertainment [19]. - The internet sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and a shift towards more stable hardware investments, with a focus on AI and consumer sectors. Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [19].

Core Insights - The integration of AI into the Chinese New Year celebrations has become a significant trend, with major companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent launching various AI-driven initiatives to engage users and enhance their experiences during the holiday season [1][3] Group 1: AI Initiatives and User Engagement - ByteDance's "Doubao New Year" activity allowed users to generate New Year greetings for a chance to win prizes, while Alibaba's Qianwen launched "Super Treat Cards" for shopping and social activities [1] - Tencent's Yuanbao introduced a "New Year Moments" feature, distributing 1 billion red envelopes to recreate the excitement of past WeChat red envelope campaigns [1] - On New Year's Eve, Doubao's AI interactions reached 1.9 billion, generating over 50 million new avatars and 100 million greetings [1] Group 2: AI in Entertainment and Cultural Integration - The Spring Festival Gala showcased AI prominently, with various platforms using AI to enhance performances and engage audiences [3][4] - The CCTVs Spring Festival Gala incorporated AI technology, such as see dance 2.0, to innovate traditional performances, while other platforms like Bilibili and NetEase also hosted AI-themed events [3][6] - AI's role in cultural presentations was highlighted by the "Hehua Shen" program, which creatively integrated AI with traditional themes, although it faced criticism for inaccuracies in cultural representation [5][4] Group 3: Audience Reception and Market Dynamics - Despite the excitement around AI, there are concerns about the quality and authenticity of AI-generated content, with some viewers expressing dissatisfaction with the perceived lack of human touch in performances [8][11] - The competition among platforms to leverage AI for user engagement is intensifying, with each platform adopting different strategies to attract and retain users [8][10] - Music platforms like Tencent Music and NetEase are exploring AI as a potential new narrative direction amidst challenges in user growth and content monetization [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The long-term success of AI in the entertainment industry will depend on its ability to enhance human creativity and maintain a balance between technology and authentic human experiences [9][10] - The industry's focus on integrating AI into production processes aims to improve efficiency while addressing audience demands for genuine, relatable content [10][11] - As AI continues to evolve, its impact on the cultural landscape will require careful consideration of both technological advancements and the preservation of human elements in creative expressions [9][11]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the top 30 Chinese non-gaming and gaming companies in terms of overseas revenue for January 2026, highlighting trends and performance in the mobile application market [1][2][6]. Non-Gaming Companies - ByteDance and YY Group continue to lead the overseas revenue rankings, despite a slight decline in revenue [2][3]. - Ruqi Software returned to the third position, with its app "PictureThis" experiencing a revenue increase of over 52.2% due to successful holiday marketing campaigns [3][4]. - Companies like 合合信息 and iQIYI saw minor revenue growth, benefiting from holiday effects on their office tools and streaming applications [4]. - Daily Yoga's revenue increased by over 50.4% due to a successful New Year campaign focused on "Chair Yoga" [4][5]. - Several companies at the lower end of the ranking, such as Appxy and 大华科技, experienced slight revenue growth [5]. Gaming Companies - The gaming market showed increased activity in January, with top companies maintaining their positions, including 点点互动, Tencent, and 柠檬微趣 [6][8]. - 点点互动's game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" achieved an estimated revenue of over $16 million, reinforcing its leading position [7][8]. - 悠星网络's games celebrated anniversaries, leading to significant revenue increases of 139.3% and 75.9% for its titles [8]. - 新游 "明日方舟：终末地" from 鹰角网络 made a strong return to the rankings, achieving notable revenue in its first weeks [8][9]. - 心动网络's new game "Heartopia" saw a revenue increase of over 147.9% due to effective marketing strategies [9].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) declined by 1.78% on February 27, with most Chinese concept stocks experiencing a drop [1][6] - Among the rising stocks, notable increases included Tencent Music (+0.14%), Futu Holdings (+1.05%), Huazhu Group (+2.82%), and Vipshop (+2.14%) [1][6] - The stocks that saw the largest declines included TSMC (-2.81%), Alibaba (-2.78%), Pinduoduo (-1.41%), and Baidu (-5.65%) [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 17.05 points (+0.03%) to 49,499.20, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 273.69 points (-1.18%) to 22,878.38 [2][7] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than expected, which did not significantly boost the market [2][7] Group 3 - The top gainers among Chinese concept stocks included Dajian Cloud Warehouse (+33.05%), GCT (+32.85%), and Jintaiyang Education (+20.54%) [3][10] - Conversely, the largest losers included QH (-79.15%), Tuniu (-12.33%), and Hang Feng Technology (-10.70%) [5][12]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market opened mixed with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were down by 0.24% and 0.04% respectively. As of the report, the Dow Jones was up by 0.27%, the Nasdaq down by 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down by 0.36% [2] - A total of 2,712 stocks rose while 2,381 stocks fell [2] Company Specifics - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but received a lukewarm response, leading to a stock price drop of over 3.6% [2] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with BeiGene down by 6.56%, Beike down by 5.85%, Baidu down by 4.83%, and Luckin Coffee down by 4.71% [3][4] - Baidu reported a year-over-year revenue decrease of 3% for the fiscal year 2025 [3] Commodity Market - International silver prices continued to decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% and spot silver down by over 3%. As of the report, COMEX silver futures were down by 4.6% and spot silver by 2.55% [7] - Gold prices also saw a slight drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by over 1% [7] Geopolitical Developments - The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. began in Geneva, focusing on nuclear issues. Iran expressed readiness to engage in discussions regarding sanctions and nuclear rights [9][10] - The outcome of these negotiations could significantly impact regional tensions, with potential for either a temporary agreement or a shift towards military options if core disagreements persist [10]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw declines of 0.24% and 0.04% respectively. As of the report, the Dow was up 0.27%, the Nasdaq down 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down 0.36% [1] - A total of 2,712 stocks advanced while 2,381 stocks declined [1] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but received a lukewarm response, leading to a stock price drop of over 3.6% [1] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, the majority experienced declines, with BeiGene down 6.56%, Beike down 5.85%, Baidu down 4.83%, and Luckin Coffee down 4.71% [5][6] Commodity Market - On February 26, international silver prices continued to decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% at one point, and spot silver down over 3%. As of the report, COMEX silver futures were down 4.6% and spot silver down 2.55% [9] - Gold prices also saw a slight drop, with COMEX gold futures down over 1% [9] - WTI crude oil fell nearly 3%, while Brent crude oil dropped over 2% [11] Geopolitical Developments - The latest round of US-Iran negotiations began in Geneva, focusing on nuclear issues, with Iran expressing a willingness to discuss sanctions relief and nuclear rights [14] - The negotiations are at a critical stage, with potential for a temporary or phased agreement to ease regional tensions, but failure to resolve core differences could lead to a breakdown in diplomatic efforts and increased military risks [15]

2026 年 02 月 26 日 ledi/229 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 研究反馈 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com Seedance2.0 突破, Al 视频 格局及产业链机遇 ——GenAl 系列报告之 69 暨 Al 应用深度之四 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ...

Core Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs indicates a divergence in offline entertainment trends during the Spring Festival, with quality live content being the core driver of entertainment consumption [1] - Travel consumption increased by 19% year-on-year during this year's Spring Festival, while box office revenue for movies was disappointing at 5.7 billion, a 40% decline compared to the previous year, returning to pre-pandemic levels [1] - The lack of quality films this year is highlighted, contrasting with the 4.8 billion box office revenue from the film "Nezha 2" during the Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Company Analysis - Recent stock price corrections due to concerns over the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence and competition have brought some companies' stock prices close to the lower end of their five-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, such as Tencent at 15x, NetEase at 13x, and Kuaishou at 10x [1] - It is anticipated that earnings per share will achieve high single-digit to low double-digit year-on-year growth by 2026 [1] Industry Outlook - In the gaming sector, Tencent and NetEase are expected to maintain strong performance due to their enduring IP advantages, despite the increasing supply of new games and the importance of overseas expansion as a key growth engine [1] - The impact of AI models on game publishing and operations is considered limited [1] - In terms of competitive landscape in the entertainment industry, Kuaishou and Bilibili have solid business foundations and AI potential, while the music and live streaming sectors face more intense competition [1]