三只松鼠业绩变脸，港股IPO能否成救命稻草？

Core Viewpoint - The company, once hailed as the "national snack first stock," is now facing unprecedented challenges despite its efforts to prepare for a Hong Kong IPO, which may be a desperate attempt to cover its declining performance and seek short-term financial support [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth, but this trend did not continue into 2025, with Q1 financial reports showing a significant net profit decline of 22.65% year-on-year and a non-recurring net profit drop of 38.31%, indicating a clear "revenue growth without profit" phenomenon [3][4] - Sales and management expenses surged, with sales expenses reaching 695 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.24%, further eroding profit margins [3] - Operating cash flow decreased sharply, raising market concerns about the company's cash flow and financial stability [3] Seasonal Performance - The company has reported negative net profits in the second quarter for three consecutive years, with figures of -79.33 million yuan in 2022, -38.08 million yuan in 2023, and -18.58 million yuan in 2024, highlighting significant seasonal fluctuations in business performance [4] International Market Challenges - Since 2018, the company has attempted to expand into overseas markets, but by 2024, international revenue was only 696,800 yuan, accounting for a mere 0.01% of total revenue, raising doubts about the authenticity of its globalization strategy [5] - The company's new sub-brands, such as "Little Deer Blue" and "Raised a Hairy Child," have not performed well in the market, with "Little Deer Blue" generating 794 million yuan in revenue but showing a declining share of total revenue [5] Strategic Challenges - The company's founder has set an ambitious revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, but the current market environment makes this goal seem distant [6] - The company faces intense competition in the offline market, particularly against merged competitors, making expansion efforts challenging [6] - Price wars in the snack industry are compressing profit margins, and maintaining competitiveness will require significant costs, further straining profitability [6]