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“吃下关税”也比“美国制造”强,大摩给苹果建议:如何哄好特朗普

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 25% import tariff on iPhones by the Trump administration may lead Apple to consider partial production relocation to the U.S., although the financial implications suggest that maintaining production in China or India remains more cost-effective [1][2][3]. Cost Analysis - Manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. would incur costs at least 35% higher than in China or India, necessitating a price increase of $1,350 for the iPhone 16 Pro to maintain similar profit margins, compared to the current price of $999 [4]. - If Apple faces a 25% tariff, it could offset this by raising global iPhone prices by only 4-6%, leveraging higher profit margins outside the U.S. [4]. Financial Impact - The anticipated tariff could reduce Apple's earnings per share (EPS) by approximately $0.11 for the fiscal year 2026, with a potential annual EPS decrease of $0.51 if tariffs are applied to the 70 million iPhones imported from China and India [3][6][10]. - The estimated additional cost from the tariff could amount to $300 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, translating to a 1 cent impact on EPS and a 50 basis points decline in gross margin [10]. Production Timeline - Establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. would take at least two years, with the need for multiple factories and over 100,000 skilled workers to meet demand, indicating that any U.S.-made iPhones may not reach consumers until after Trump's presidency [5]. Strategic Recommendations - Morgan Stanley suggests that Apple CEO Tim Cook should consider moving some small-batch product manufacturing back to the U.S., such as certain Mac models and AI servers, to mitigate geopolitical risks and demonstrate commitment to U.S. production [7].