Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered's G10 FX Research Head, Steve Englander, warns of an imminent liquidity crisis facing U.S. assets, with 2026 potentially being a critical point for foreign investors' decisions on U.S. debt purchases [1] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Foreign Investment - Over the past decade, U.S. external debt has surged, with fiscal deficits heavily reliant on international capital inflows [1] - If foreign investors lose confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, the market will quickly feel the pain of "blood loss" [1] - The recent "Beautiful Bill" passed by the Senate failed to alleviate concerns about fiscal sustainability, with economists believing it will exacerbate deficits rather than resolve them [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Despite a 15 basis point decline in 10-year Treasury yields this year, the dollar index has plummeted 8% in 2025, signaling potential risks [1] - The low domestic savings rate in the U.S. poses a significant challenge, making foreign investor confidence crucial for maintaining the debt chain [1] - Englander cites Hemingway's quote about crisis patterns, suggesting that while the U.S. may maintain a "boiling frog" state for a while, 2026 could mark a turning point [1] Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - Inflation and exchange rate risks are core concerns for foreign investors [2] - Even if the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, rising risk premiums could deter foreign capital, potentially leading to an increase in long-term Treasury yields [2] - The lack of alternative options in the global market is currently delaying the crisis, with international investors likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding tariff conflicts and the effects of the Trump administration's tax reforms and deregulation policies in 2025 [2]
渣打银行警告：2026年或成美债“血崩”的起点！