Will Nvidia's stock price go up after earnings? Here's what history tells us

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is set to report its quarterly earnings, with traders expecting a 6% price movement in either direction by the end of the week, indicating potential volatility around the earnings announcement [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Earnings History - Nvidia's stock has increased nearly 25% over the past month, recovering from earlier losses and showing a 1% gain year-to-date, trading at $135.50 as of May 28 [2] - Despite consistently beating Wall Street expectations for the last nine quarters, Nvidia has not experienced a post-earnings rally in a year, with the last significant jump occurring in May 2024 [2][4] - The stock's performance following earnings reports has been mixed, with notable fluctuations including a 14% increase in February 2023 and an 8.5% decrease in February 2025, despite strong earnings [4][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Stock Reaction - Strong earnings alone do not guarantee a positive stock reaction; factors such as soft guidance or broader market conditions can lead to selloffs even after beating estimates [6][7] - Forward guidance is crucial for investor sentiment, as seen in February 2025 when Nvidia's stock fell despite beating revenue and earnings expectations due to concerns over export restrictions to China [7] - The macroeconomic environment, including inflation and market volatility, can overshadow strong earnings results, particularly for high-growth companies like Nvidia [8] Group 3: Market Expectations and Geopolitical Sensitivity - High investor expectations can lead to selloffs even after positive earnings reports, as the market may react negatively if results do not exceed lofty anticipations [9] - Nvidia's reliance on advanced chip exports and exposure to China makes it particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global market conditions [9]