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ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK)：EARNINGS QUALITY IMPROVING; SHAREHOLDER RETURNS PROMISING
09956ANE(09956) 格隆汇· Ge Long Hui·2025-05-28 18:34

Core Viewpoint - ANE (Cayman) reported strong financial results for 1Q25, with revenue and profit growth despite challenging market conditions, indicating resilience and effective strategic adjustments in the express freight industry [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 9% YoY to Rmb2.59 billion, while gross profit grew by 7% YoY to Rmb410 million [1]. - Attributable net profit rose by 20% YoY to Rmb226 million, and adjusted net profit increased by 16% YoY to Rmb242 million, with an adjusted net margin reaching a quarterly high of 9.4% [1]. - The firm’s cash and cash equivalents surged by 50% YoY to Rmb2.01 billion, indicating strong cash flow [4]. Market Trends - The express freight market is shifting towards high-margin small parcels, with volumes of parcels under 70kg increasing by 27% YoY [2]. - Total freight volume for less-than-truckload (LTL) services rose by 6% YoY to 3.045 million tonnes, with significant growth in mini freight and light freight categories [2]. Cost Structure and Profitability - Average selling price (ASP) for LTL services increased by 3% YoY to Rmb850 per tonne, while cost per tonne also rose by 3% YoY to Rmb715 [3]. - The unit gross profit per tonne rose by 2% YoY to Rmb135, reflecting improved profitability despite rising costs in certain service areas [3]. Competitive Position - The number of franchisees grew by approximately 22% YoY to 36,000, driven by improved product competitiveness and reduced parcel loss rates [4]. - ANE is positioned as a leading franchised express shipping company, capable of adjusting pricing and volume strategies in response to market dynamics [5]. Future Outlook - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered by 4.6% and 1.5% to Rmb1.01 billion and Rmb1.22 billion, respectively, reflecting market conditions [6]. - The stock is currently trading at 10.0x and 8.2x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HK$11.00, suggesting an 18.9% upside potential [6].