股债双杀时代如何避险？高盛“开方”：买黄金！

Core Insights - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is underperforming due to ineffective hedging against market downturns caused by tariff policies and economic uncertainties [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts recommend alternative assets like gold and oil to better hedge against inflation shocks affecting stock and bond returns [3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent U.S. Treasury bonds have failed to protect against stock market declines, particularly during periods of heightened economic concerns and rising borrowing costs [1][3] - Historical trends show that stocks and bonds can experience simultaneous declines, especially during inflation or commodity shocks [3] Group 2: Alternative Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests incorporating gold and oil futures into the 60/40 portfolio to reduce annual volatility from 10% to below 7% [3] - For investors with a holding period of over five years, it is advised to overweight gold assets due to their negative correlation with stocks and bonds [6] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold has risen 26.6% since 2025, driven by concerns over U.S. policy, with expectations that these concerns will persist in the short term [6] - Factors such as fiscal sustainability, debt issues, and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence are seen as bullish for gold [6] - If concerns escalate, private investors may push gold prices beyond current forecasts of $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [6] Group 4: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends maintaining a positive but underweight position in oil, as supply concerns are expected to diminish due to anticipated ample production capacity in 2025-2026 [6]