传统股债组合频频失灵？高盛建议：长期超配黄金，低配原油

Core Insights - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio is failing, prompting investors to seek alternative hedges such as gold and oil [1][3] - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting gold and underweighting oil in long-term investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with inflation shocks [2][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Overweighting gold and underweighting oil can effectively reduce portfolio risk over the long term [2][3] - Historical data shows that during periods when both stocks and bonds have negative real returns, either gold or oil typically provides positive real returns [2][3] Group 2: Gold as a Hedge - The recommendation to overweight gold is based on two main factors: rising risks to U.S. institutional credibility and increasing demand from central banks [4] - U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is rising, and potential fiscal expansion raises sustainability concerns, while central bank independence is under scrutiny [4] - Central bank demand for gold has surged fivefold since 2022, particularly from emerging market central banks, which is expected to continue for at least three more years [4] Group 3: Oil Positioning - Goldman Sachs suggests a lower allocation to oil due to reduced risks of significant shortages in 2025-2026, attributed to high spare capacity and increased non-OPEC supply [6] - Despite the lower allocation, maintaining a positive position in oil is still advised due to potential future supply disruptions [6][9] Group 4: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains a price forecast for gold at $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [5]