KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-03 02:29Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly declined, with the 25-year bottle dropping to 2030 yuan and the 24-year original box at 2130 yuan, approaching the 2000 yuan mark, indicating a loss of brand premium and changing market dynamics [1][3]. Supply and Demand - Previously, Moutai was scarce and highly sought after, leading to high prices. Currently, there is an oversupply, with rumors suggesting that only one-third of Moutai is actually consumed, while the rest remains in storage [3]. - The demand for high-end liquor, primarily driven by gifting and business receptions, has decreased due to health considerations and stricter business practices, alongside a general economic downturn leading to consumer downgrading [3]. Market Dynamics - The presence of scalpers, who previously profited from rising prices, is now causing a downward spiral as they are forced to sell off their stock at lower prices due to tight cash flow, exacerbated by promotional events like the 618 sales [3]. - Moutai's direct sales initiatives, such as the "i Moutai" platform, intended to control prices, have inadvertently facilitated scalpers by allowing them easier access to stock, disrupting the traditional distribution system [4]. Investment Implications - The financial attributes of Moutai are diminishing, suggesting that it may increasingly be viewed as a consumer product rather than an investment vehicle. Investors need to adopt a more rational perspective on Moutai's value [5]. - The entire high-end liquor industry is undergoing adjustments, with other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also experiencing price declines, indicating a shift in industry logic [5]. - Investors are advised to avoid panic selling or blindly hoarding stock, while also considering potential new growth avenues for Moutai, such as targeting younger consumers or developing new products [5].