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网易云音乐(9899.HK):1季度毛利率优化超预期 看好盈利能力释放

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% to 1.93 billion and 2.20 billion RMB respectively, based on better-than-expected cost optimization [1] - The target price for the next 12 months has been increased to 240 HKD from 184 HKD, with the core business contributing 223 HKD based on an average P/E ratio of 20 times for quality content and copyright companies [1] - The cash contribution to the target price is 17 HKD, reflecting a 30% discount [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 8%, which is a larger drop compared to a 2% decline in the second half of 2024, primarily due to a decrease in social entertainment revenue [1] - The gross margin improved to 36.7%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from growth in subscription revenue and optimization in live streaming revenue sharing [1] - For 2025, online music revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with subscription revenue projected to increase by 16%, driven by membership expansion [2] - Non-member business revenue is anticipated to rise by 11%, although advertising revenue growth may slow due to a high base effect [2] - Social revenue expectations have been lowered by 7% to 1.8 billion RMB, corresponding to a year-on-year decline of 31%, but profit is expected to remain stable due to optimized revenue sharing costs [2]