Nvidia(US:NVDA) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-04 13:57Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's recent financial reports exceed expectations, and its growth prospects may surpass market predictions, particularly in AI infrastructure projects valued conservatively at over $1 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure Potential - UBS analysts estimate that Nvidia's AI infrastructure projects, conservatively assessed at "tens of gigawatts," could lead to annual data center revenues of approximately $400 billion within 2-3 years, nearly double the current market expectations of $233 billion for fiscal year 2026 [1][2]. - The construction boom in AI data centers is expected to manifest in the real economy by the second quarter of 2026, indicating a shift towards exponential infrastructure expansion rather than a cyclical concept [1][6]. Group 2: GB200 Shipment Insights - Nvidia reported that major hyperscale customers are deploying nearly 1,000 NVL72 racks weekly, equating to 72,000 Blackwell GPUs, with expectations for further capacity increases this quarter [3]. - UBS clarifies that Nvidia's communication regarding GB200 shipments aims to assure investors that rack issues have been resolved, rather than providing specific revenue run-rate figures [3]. Group 3: Network Business Growth - Nvidia's network revenue surged to approximately $5 billion in the first fiscal quarter, a 64% quarter-over-quarter increase, largely driven by NVLink revenue growth [3]. - The NVL72 system, which includes 72 GPUs, significantly enhances the network's performance compared to previous configurations, leading to tighter tracking of network revenue with NVL72 rack shipments [3]. Group 4: Gaming Business Recovery - The first fiscal quarter saw a nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in gaming revenue, raising investor concerns about the potential repurposing of RTX 50 series graphics cards [4][5]. - UBS argues that any such repurposing is minimal due to limited supply of Blackwell-based RTX GPUs in the gaming channel, with growth primarily driven by channel replenishment after severe supply shortages [5]. Group 5: Gross Margin Recovery Path - Improvements in Blackwell profitability and cost reductions are expected to drive gross margins back to around 75% by the end of fiscal year 2026 [6]. - The GB300 is anticipated to play a crucial role in revenue recognition, with significant volume expected in the third fiscal quarter, while value pricing remains a key factor for Nvidia's gross margins [6].