消费新势力崛起，618开启情绪价值主战场

Group 1: Policy and Platform Dynamics - The consumption stimulus policy for 2025 is significantly penetrating daily scenarios, with subsidies for home appliances, electric vehicles, and energy-saving products creating a dual leverage effect with e-commerce promotions [3] - Major platforms are simplifying rules and extending promotional periods, with the 618 sales event lasting 37 days, allowing for diverse consumption scenarios [3] - The shift in the burden of discounts from merchants to platforms is evident, as platforms like Douyin and Taobao are providing cash subsidies to merchants, indicating a transition from "traffic harvesting" to "ecosystem cultivation" [3] Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - The consumer structure is evolving into three main groups: new power consumers (Z generation and small-town youth), blue ocean consumers (silver-haired and middle-aged), and quality-focused consumers (urban white-collar and discerning mothers) [4][5] - Emotional value is becoming a key driver of consumption, with 40.1% of young consumers prioritizing emotional satisfaction in their purchasing decisions [5] Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The 618 event highlights three key areas of technological empowerment: smart home revolution, globalized duty-free consumption, and the industrialization of emotional consumption [6][7] - Smart locks are predicted to see sales exceed 1.3 million units, with advanced biometric technologies becoming increasingly popular [6] - Duty-free shopping is evolving into a major cross-border consumption scene, with significant growth in inbound tourism and duty-free store revenues [6] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - The secondary market is experiencing a revaluation of consumption investments, with new consumption entities like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Jin seeing significantly higher price-to-earnings ratios compared to traditional consumer stocks [8] - Traditional leaders are stabilizing, with a focus on cash flow and return on equity, while low-tier market consumption confidence is recovering [8] Group 5: Key Variables in June - Three critical variables will determine consumption performance in June: the balance of price and experience, the efficiency of emotional consumption conversion, and the multiplier effect of policies [9][10] - The average price of smart locks is rising, but enhanced features are helping to mitigate the impact of price increases [9] Group 6: Conclusion on Market Trends - The 2025 consumption market is characterized by differentiation, emotionalization, and technological advancement, with the true battleground shifting to consumer psychology [11] - The new consumption symbols are emerging, reflecting a shift in consumer values and preferences [12]