Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-06 01:56Core Insights - The U.S. power grid is on the brink of collapse due to extreme weather and a rapid transition in energy structure, with Goldman Sachs warning of potential rolling blackouts and soaring electricity prices this summer [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - U.S. electricity demand has been growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate expected to reach 2.5%, remaining high until 2030 [1] - The construction of controllable energy sources, such as natural gas and coal power plants, is lagging significantly behind the demand growth [1] - The effective reserve capacity in the U.S. is projected to fall below the recommended 20% safety margin this year, with a shocking decline to 14% by 2027 [1] Group 2: Regional Power Grid Risks - The PJM grid is expected to enter a state of emergency this summer, with reserve capacity plummeting from 15% in 2024 to 6% by 2027 [2] - The MISO grid will reach a critical threshold in 2026 due to insufficient generation facilities amid rising demand [2] - The ERCOT grid, while currently benefiting from renewable energy, is projected to enter a dangerous zone by 2028, with Texas already showing the highest price risk premium during peak demand [2] Group 3: Market Implications and Recommendations - The tightening of the electricity market will lead to increased price volatility, a shift in investment towards energy storage and generation facilities, and consumers needing to manage risks proactively [3] - Regulatory actions may be necessary to prevent further coal plant closures and expedite the approval process for natural gas infrastructure [3] - Previous warnings about the stability of the U.S. power grid have been issued, with PJM alerting to supply gap risks as early as May [4]