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零跑汽车(9863.HK):新车周期强劲 全球化稳步推进

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles for the year, with a strong new car cycle expected in 2025, contributing to high revenue growth and improved gross margins [1][2]. Sales Performance - From January to May, the company reported a cumulative sales increase of 161% year-on-year, reaching 173,658 vehicles [1]. - The company maintains its annual sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles and aims for a gross margin of 10-12% [1][2]. Product Development - The company will launch multiple new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) in 2025-2026, with the B platform models expected to be released within the year [1]. - The latest LEAP 3.5 architecture enhances performance while significantly reducing costs through higher integration and optimized intelligent driving solutions [2]. Channel Expansion - The company is expanding its channel network, aiming to exceed 1,000 sales outlets by the end of the year, with a focus on improving single-store efficiency and dealer profitability [2]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has 756 sales outlets covering 279 cities, with a 50% year-on-year increase in single-store efficiency [2]. International Market Strategy - 2025 is identified as a critical year for overseas expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units [2]. - The company is set to begin local production in Malaysia by the end of the year and aims for European manufacturing by 2026 [2]. Financial Forecast - The company projects revenues of 68.7 billion, 91.4 billion, and 116.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 350 million, 2.04 billion, and 4.31 billion [3]. - A price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.5 is maintained for 2025, with a target price set at 81.15 HKD, reflecting a premium valuation due to the anticipated strong new car cycle and strategic partnerships [3].