Apple(US:AAPL) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-06 02:43Core Viewpoint - A federal appeals court upheld a ruling requiring Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) to allow "link payment" support in its App Store, which may lead to a 2% to 3% decline in earnings per share, although the revenue impact may not be as significant as feared [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Impact - Evercore ISI estimates that Apple's App Store generates approximately $21 billion in annual sales, with a potential risk of $7 billion in revenue from U.S. developers due to the ruling [2]. - If the entire $7 billion were to disappear, it would imply a 6% reduction in earnings per share, but the actual impact is expected to be lower [2]. - Morgan Stanley's survey indicated that 28% of respondents are "very likely" to bypass the App Store payment process, which could risk 2% of Apple's earnings per share [2]. Group 2: Market Response - In May, Apple's App Store total revenue grew by 13%, with a 10% increase in the U.S. market, suggesting that developers may not immediately leave the Apple ecosystem [1]. - The gaming segment accounts for 65% of U.S. App Store revenue, with many purchases being one-time transactions, indicating that a shift to other payment platforms could result in higher fees than Apple's current 27% cut [2]. Group 3: Developer Perspective - Apple emphasizes that over 90% of transactions through its App Store in 2024 will not incur any commission for developers, highlighting the platform's value to developers [3].