PETROCHINA(SH:601857) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-06 08:22Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) stock reflects a significant shift in market perception, transitioning from a "sunset industry" to a "safe haven" for capital, driven by supply-demand restructuring, value reassessment, and capital dynamics [1][3][8]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - CNPC's stock price has risen for 60 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 25%, bringing its market capitalization close to 1.8 trillion yuan, surpassing the peak during the 2015 bull market [1][3]. - Institutional holdings in CNPC increased from 12.3% to 18.7% by the end of Q1 2024, with significant purchases from social security funds and public funds, indicating a shift towards long-term investments [3][4]. Group 2: Fundamental and Financial Transformation - CNPC is undergoing a transformation with stable crude oil production of 760 million barrels and a 5.2% year-on-year increase in natural gas production, while its oil cost has dropped below $30 per barrel [3][6]. - The revenue share from new energy businesses has increased from 1.2% in 2020 to 8.7% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a dual-driven model of traditional energy and green transition [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Players and Investment Strategies - Long-term funds, including social security and sovereign wealth funds, are key drivers of CNPC's stock performance, attracted by its high dividend yield of 5%-6%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [4][5]. - Foreign capital has increased its holdings in CNPC by 45% within six months, reflecting international confidence in China's energy security [4][5]. Group 4: Future Variables and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of CNPC's stock rise is contingent on three key variables: oil price fluctuations, the financial viability of its new energy projects, and market sentiment shifts [6][7]. - Oil prices are crucial, as a $10 increase in oil price can boost CNPC's net profit by approximately 20 billion yuan, but excessive price hikes could limit profit elasticity due to domestic pricing mechanisms [6][7]. - The market's perception of CNPC's new energy initiatives remains speculative, with concerns about cost competitiveness and potential policy changes affecting future valuations [7][8].