要点 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总 理李强作政府工作报告。报告回顾了 2025 年工作，提出了"十五五"时期主要 目标和重大任务以及 2026 年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署了 2026 年政府工作任务。 首提"能源强国建设规划纲要"，能源安全战略地位再提升。报告明确"十五五" 期间能源综合生产能力目标达到 58 亿吨标准煤，较"十四五"末目标（不低于 46 亿吨标准煤）进一步大幅提升，体现了在外部环境复杂严峻背景下政府保障 国内能源供给的坚定决心。当前全球地缘政治风险持续高企，俄乌冲突已进入第 四年，美以伊近期又再度出现地缘政治冲突，我国原油、天然气对外依存度长期 较高，能源化工产业链安全面临多重挑战。在此背景下，"三桶油"持续响应国 家增储上产战略，勘探开发资本开支有望维持高位，下属油服有望充分受益。 2026 年 3 月 7 日 行业研究 政府工作报告聚焦安全发展与"双碳"，关注新兴产业需求及"AI+" ——基础化工行业周报（20260302-20260306） 风险提示：政策落地不及预期，产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期，行 业竞争加剧。 ...

2026 年 3 月 7 日 行业研究 美伊冲突持续背景下，如何看待石化化工板块投资机会？ ——石油化工行业周报第 441 期（20260302—20260308） 要点 美伊冲突持续背景下，如何看待石化化工板块投资机会？美伊冲突持续一方 面会直接推高全球油价，另一方面伊朗若长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将推高原油 及化工品运输成本，伊朗局势如何演绎将很大程度影响全球化工品走势，全球 能源及化工品供需格局或将迎来重塑。在此背景下，我们认为建议关注三大主 线：1）继续看好油气板块，看好上游、油服、油运等板块的长期价值；2） 关注地缘冲突背景下的化工品供需格局重塑；3）关注油头的替代路线——煤 化工板块。 原油价格大幅上涨，油气、油服、油运长期价值凸显。原油供需面临一定压 力，但本轮地缘政治冲突有望使原油供需担忧得到缓解，地缘风险溢价的整体 上升有望在一段时间内持续推高油价。作为上游油气领域央企巨头，"三桶油" 和油服在油价上行期的业绩弹性凸显。2026 年，"三桶油"将继续维持高资 本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下游炼化业务转型，有望实现穿越 油价周期的长期成长。油服方面，国内高额上游资本开支投入将有力保障上游 ...

记者丨曾静娇 吴斌 编辑丨刘雪莹 3月6日早盘，国际油价一改此前涨势震荡走低，WTI原油一度跌超3.4%，截至北京时间10:20，跌幅收窄至 约2%，此前连续三日大涨，本周涨幅累计超过18%。ICE布油同步跌超1.5%。 公开资料显示，巴林国家石油公司在巴林仅拥有并运营一座大型炼油厂，该炼油厂日原油加工能力为26.7万 桶。 高盛提醒，未来几周的局势发展可能会决定接下来很长一段时间的国际油价走向。一旦霍尔木兹海峡的封 锁时间延长数周，可能会导致国际油价突破100美元/桶大关。 越声投研： 热门题材公司线索延伸阅读 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 股市方面，A股油气板块领跌，洲际油气跌超7%，"三桶油"均跌超3%；港股"三桶油"同步走低，均跌超 1%，众诚能源跌近4%，部分油气设备股走强 ，百勤油服涨15%、惠生工程涨近7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洲际油气 | 8.05 | -0.65 | -7.47% | | 和顺石油 | 40.10 | -2.71 | -6.33% | | 泰山石油 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and government policies impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on the construction, energy, and real estate industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, aligning with expectations. However, there is a notable gap in fiscal spending versus debt increase, necessitating reliance on tax revenue recovery and central government support for local tax sources [1][2][3]. 2. **Dual Carbon Policy**: The dual carbon policy has shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," enhancing quantitative constraints. This is expected to benefit sectors like carbon accounting software, carbon trading, smart grids, and hydrogen energy [1][4]. 3. **Coal Sector Outlook**: The coal sector is viewed as having a "second growth curve," driven by AI-related electricity demand growth, which offsets dual carbon pressures. Domestic and import supply reductions are anticipated, with coal prices expected to rise from a bottoming phase, suggesting over 50% upside potential for coal stocks [1][20][21]. 4. **Debt Market Expectations**: The bond market has already priced in the subdued fiscal expectations, with a short-term forecast for 10-year government bond yields to retreat to 1.85%-1.9%. There remains room for interest rate cuts throughout the year [1][12][14]. 5. **Construction and Building Materials**: The focus is on major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant investment opportunities in western development, major canals, and high-standard farmland construction. The construction materials sector is nearing a profitability inflection point, with leading companies like Oriental Yuhong expected to benefit [1][22][26]. 6. **Consumer Sector Trends**: Consumer spending is expected to show a "high-low" rhythm, with potential weakness in Q2. Opportunities in high-end travel and service consumption are highlighted, particularly with the expansion of spring break trials [2][15]. 7. **Investment Directions**: The report emphasizes investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and livelihood improvements, with a focus on projects like major railways and hydropower. The total investment in these areas is projected to exceed 8 trillion yuan [22][24]. 8. **Real Estate Policy Changes**: The real estate sector's focus has shifted from risk prevention to stabilizing the market, with a new emphasis on a "people-centered" approach. The reform of housing provident funds is highlighted as a key support mechanism [27][30][31]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Tax Revenue Recovery**: The anticipated recovery in tax revenue due to price increases and economic expansion is crucial for addressing the fiscal gap [2][3]. 2. **AI and Energy Demand**: The demand for coal is expected to increase due to AI-driven electricity needs, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [20]. 3. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The report outlines significant urban renewal projects, with a focus on old neighborhood renovations and infrastructure safety, potentially driving demand for construction materials [23][34]. 4. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The introduction of "green fuels" and a multi-energy approach is noted, with major state-owned enterprises involved in clean energy projects [24]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for gradual recovery in various sectors, particularly in construction and real estate [1][10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and sector-specific developments that may influence investment strategies moving forward.

Macro and Strategy - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the priority of "high-quality development" over "stability" with a GDP growth target adjusted to 4.5%-5.0%, aiming to balance growth and quality during a transitional period [7][8] - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a total broad deficit of 11.89 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of approximately 8.1%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [8] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with anticipated adjustments including one rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026 [8] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for March 2026 recommends focusing on rising crude oil and natural gas prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that disrupted energy supplies [9][10] - The conflict has led to significant price increases in European natural gas, with prices surging over 50% due to supply disruptions from Iran and Qatar [9] - The supply side is experiencing a downturn in fixed asset investment, indicating the end of the expansion cycle, while policies are aimed at eliminating low-priced, disordered competition [10] - Demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, alongside growth in new energy and AI sectors driving demand for key chemicals [11] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices stabilizing between $70-$75 per barrel and WTI prices between $65-$70 per barrel in 2026, with specific investment recommendations for companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [12] Retail Industry - The retail investment strategy for March 2026 highlights the proactive positioning of leading beauty brands for the upcoming International Women's Day promotions, with expectations for improved performance due to new product launches [17] - Gold prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 22.34%, impacting consumer sentiment and sales in the jewelry sector [18] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, suggesting that leading companies in gold and beauty will continue to grow despite short-term market volatility [19] Ctrip Group - Ctrip's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 20.8% year-on-year, outperforming expectations, with a total revenue of 15.4 billion yuan [20][21] - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing traffic monetization, with significant growth in overseas bookings through its Trip.com platform [21] - Regulatory scrutiny regarding antitrust issues is a key concern, but the company's strong operational capabilities and supply chain integration are expected to support steady growth [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment directions driven by rising crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that have disrupted energy supplies and caused significant price increases in Europe [1][16]. Supply Side Summary - Since June 2025, fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative, with capital expenditures in basic chemicals and most sub-sectors declining for several consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the industry expansion cycle [2][17]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, affecting sectors like pesticides, petrochemicals, and organic silicon [2][17]. - Approval for new chemical production capacity is expected to tighten, accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting small-scale backward production capacity [2][17]. Demand Side Summary - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus policies [2][17]. - Emerging demand from industries such as renewable energy and AI continues to drive growth in key chemicals and materials [2][17]. - The ongoing reduction of overseas chemical production capacity, particularly in Europe due to high energy costs and aging facilities, is expected to benefit Chinese chemical companies, which hold over 40% of global sales [2][17]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of February 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, indicating a slight decline in production activities [3][18]. - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported 4027 points, down 2% month-on-month, reflecting structural differentiation in chemical prices [3][18]. - International oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures reaching $74.66 and $81.40 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 11.4% and 12.3% from the end of February [3][18]. Key Industry Research - Oil and Gas: February oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI at $64.4 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [23]. - Fluorochemicals: The industry is expected to maintain high demand due to the ongoing transition to second-generation refrigerants and the growth of the liquid cooling industry [19]. - Phosphate Chemicals: The demand for phosphate rock is anticipated to increase due to its scarcity and the growing need for energy storage [19]. - Potash: The global potash market is expected to recover, with a focus on companies like Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and production capacity [19][7]. Monthly Investment Portfolio - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Dongyue Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Chuanheng Co., Ltd., all of which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [22][9].

2007年刚入市不久，中了一只新股，名叫中国石油，当时头戴"亚洲最赚钱公司"的光环。 2007年11月5日中国石油A股上市当天，市场沸腾。 king1000 由此可见，价值投资者长期是有利益回报的。 dingo49 知名股评老沙竭力唱多的情景至今难忘，语录1：买了中石油，一辈子不用愁；买了中石化， 一辈子不用怕。语录2：留住这1000股，你就留住了与股市相爱后戴上的一枚结婚戒指。 十九年过去，2026年3月3日，中签的中国石油解套。 qgj8848 厉害，坚持这么多年。 依稀记得我是那年入市的，入市即高点，给了教训，也造成了后来只买基金不买股票的习 惯。 lcdc 算上这些年的分红，昨天收盘价就是发行价了，今天已经赚10%，就是19年时间太长了。 当时我也中一签石油，上市卖了。这一签，没有买基金套利中石油赚的多。那时候，这种盘 子大涨幅大的股票，基本都可以一鱼两吃。 我就是在2007年入市的， 当年中油打新，我也很想参与，但是无奈钱不够啊~ 只能看办公室 的老师中签然后上市赚钱走人， 心里那个羡慕啊~~ 如今时光飞逝， 当初买入中石油的终于可以解套了， 经过这么多年努力，我的净值也做到了 180了~~~ 大家 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司（於中華人⺠共和國註册成立之股份有限公司） I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00857 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | 21,098,900,000 | | RMB | 1 | RMB | | 21,098,900,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 21,098,900,000 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 21,098,900,000 | | 2. 股份分 ...

Core Insights - The report recommends investment directions driven by rising crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that have disrupted energy supplies [1][16] - The report highlights the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on global energy markets, with significant price increases in European natural gas and potential profit recovery opportunities for domestic chemical sectors [1][16] Supply Side - Since June 2025, fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative, with capital expenditures in basic chemicals and most sub-sectors declining for several consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the industry expansion cycle [2][17] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, with industries such as pesticides, petrochemicals, and organic silicon already following suit [2][17] - Approval for new chemical production capacity is expected to tighten, accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting small-scale backward production capacities [2][17] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal policy stimulus [2][17] - Emerging demand from industries such as renewable energy and AI continues to drive growth in key chemicals and materials [2][17] - China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, and with the dual drivers of overseas capacity reduction and domestic demand recovery, Chinese chemical companies are expected to continue increasing their global market share [2][17] Macro and Chemical Product Prices - In February 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, indicating a slight decline, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0% [3][18] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported 4027 points, a 2% decrease month-on-month, indicating structural differentiation in chemical prices [3][18] - International oil prices have significantly increased due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude futures prices rising by 11.4% and 12.3% respectively by March 4, 2026 [3][18] Key Industry Research - Oil and Gas: February oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI at $64.4 per barrel, reflecting a significant increase [3][23] - Fluorochemicals: The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the tight supply-demand balance and rising prices of mainstream refrigerants [3][19] - Phosphate Chemicals: The demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase due to energy storage applications, reinforcing its scarcity and maintaining high prices [3][19] - Potash: The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly and resource scarcity, with prices expected to recover moderately [3][19] Investment Portfolio - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum Corporation, CNOOC, Yara International, Dongyue Group, New Chemical Materials, and Chuanheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [3][22]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 谁能想到，美以伊这边打得不可开交，连续两天涨停的 "三桶油"成了资金的避风港。 短短三个交易日，中国石油、中国海油涨近 20% ，中国石化涨近 15% 。 中石油甚至只需要再努力一点，就可以超过工商银行，坐上 A 股市值第一的"宝座"。 时间线再拉长些，自从 1 月美国往中东增兵，开战形势露出苗头后，石化油气等板块连日的上涨趋势就此开启。 潜能恒信、通源石油、洲际油气等中小市值石油股进入疯狂的翻倍模式，完全踩在短期题材博弈的节奏中。 | | | | | 油气股年初迄今股价表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 还原 | 代理 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅 | 年初至今 | 总市值 | | 1 | 300164 | 通線石油 | 22.41 | -8.75% | 305.98% | 131.9亿 | | 2 | | 920088 科力股份 | 80.28 | -9.22% | 174.93% | 70.70亿 | | 3 | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 8 ...