证券研究报告 | 2026年04月01日 氦气行业快评 卡塔尔氦气供应中断，关注替代气源与氦气价格上行 | 行业研究·行业快评  | | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 张歆钰 | 021-60375408 | | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524080004 | 事项： 2026 年 3 月 2 日，卡塔尔能源公司位于拉斯拉凡与梅赛义德工业城的运营设施遭军事袭击，已停止 LNG 及 相关产品的生产；2026 年 3 月 18 至 19 日，拉斯拉凡工业城再次遭导弹袭击并引发火灾，城内两条主力 LNG 生产线及配套设施损毁。拉斯拉凡工业城是全球最大的 LNG 生产与出口综合体、全球最大的 LNG 装船 码头，是欧洲、亚洲市场 LNG 核心供应来源，同时也是全球最大的 ...

股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 23.5 14.5 21.4 54.0 相对上证综指 26.0 20.3 22.4 36.9 发行股数 (百万) 183,020.98 流通股 (百万) 183,020.98 总市值 (人民币 百万) 2,276,780.96 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 3,688.23 主要股东 中国石油天然气集团有限公司（%） 82.19 (11%) 5% 22% 38% 54% 70% Mar-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 中国石油 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 3 月 30 日收市价为标准 石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 3 月 31 日 601857.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.44 板块评级:强于大市 石油石化：炼化及贸易 证券分析师：徐中良 zhongliang.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书 ...

中国石油（601857.SH）2025 年年报点评 石油龙头业绩稳健，绝对分红维持不变 glmszqdatemark 相关研究 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 周泰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110019 | | | 邮箱： | zhoutai@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 王姗姗 | | 执业证书： S0590525110021 | | | 邮箱： | wangshanshan_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 李航 | | 执业证书： S0590525110020 | | | 邮箱： | lihang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 卢佳琪 | | 执业证书： S0590525110022 | | | 邮箱： | lujiaqi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -20% 13% 47% 80% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 中国石油 沪深300 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 2026 年 03 月 31 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价 ...

Overall Research - In March, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general pullback, with significant differentiation across sectors. The A-share market saw the ChiNext index decline by 0.4%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 12.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 4.6%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.3% [1][2]. A-share Insights - Chinese assets are expected to show internal stability and potential for mid-term upward movement. Despite facing short-term risks from oil price fluctuations and declining risk appetite, the domestic market's high energy self-sufficiency provides some resistance to rising external energy prices. Historically, domestic exports tend to benefit from increased external uncertainties, indicating a stable supply chain [1]. Sector Recommendations - Focus on sectors that have previously experienced significant declines, those benefiting from rising commodity prices, and industries with potential for exceeding performance expectations. The report highlights resource products, essential consumption, hard technology, and government investment-related sectors as key areas of interest [2]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is positioned for resilience, with the OpenClaw framework redefining the AI industry narrative. The performance of leading AI companies in the US, such as Nvidia and Google, supports a robust fundamental backdrop for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. The market is experiencing a convergence of three favorable factors: clear industry prosperity, improving sentiment as geopolitical concerns ease, and strong capital support, with net inflows of 63.2 billion HKD as of March 27 [3]. Investment Focus - The report recommends prioritizing investments in the technology sector, particularly through Hong Kong technology ETFs, to capitalize on the overall rebound. Specific focus should be on companies that are rapidly commercializing AI and have stable cash flows and low valuations [3]. A-share Stock Recommendations - The recommended A-share stocks for April 2026 include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) - Communication - Teruid (特锐德) - Power Equipment - Jereh (杰瑞股份) - Machinery - Nanjing Bank (南京银行) - Banking - Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) - Non-ferrous Metals - China Petroleum (中国石油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中国海油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Social Services - Huaneng International (华能国际) - Utilities - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家) - Home Appliances [4][6]. Hong Kong Stock Recommendations - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for April 2026 include: - Hon Teng Precision (鸿腾精密) - Communication - Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Power Equipment - Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) - Retail [4][7].

[Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 证券研究报告 公司研究 ➢ 油价中枢下行，但公司全产业链抗风险能力突出。油价端，2025 年国 际油价在产油国增产、美国对等关税政策导致需求拖累等多因素影响 下震荡下跌。2025 年布伦特平均油价为 68 美元/桶，同比下跌 15%， 上游勘探开发板块盈利同比下滑，但炼化、成品油销售和天然气销售 板块盈利有所修复，公司业绩整体保持稳健。分板块盈利看，2025 年 公司油气及新能源、炼化及新材料、销售板块、天然气销售板块分别 实现经营利润人民币 1361、242、175、608 亿元，同比-236、+28、 +10、+68 亿元。2025 年公司自由现金流 1201.89 亿元，同比增长 15.2%。总体来看，由于 2025 年全年油价中枢下移，公司上游勘探开 发业务短期承压，但下游业务整体盈利有所改善，公司业绩仍保持稳 健，全产业链抗风险能力突出。 ➢ 油气产量再创新高，新能源业务保持高速增长。油气方面， ...

Key Recommendations - Yaxing Integration (603929.SH) is positioned as a leader in cleanroom engineering, which is critical for AI infrastructure development, with a significant increase in demand for cleanroom projects driven by the AI computing power boom [9][10] - The company has a strong relationship with its Taiwanese parent company, which has extensive experience in building advanced wafer fabs, allowing for resource sharing and collaboration in overseas markets [9] - The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing a rapid increase in orders and revenue, leading to a substantial improvement in profit margins for Yaxing Integration [9][11] Financial Performance - Yaxing Integration's net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 have been raised to 1.945 billion, 3.135 billion, and 4.138 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [11] - The expected earnings per share for the same period are projected to be 9.12, 14.69, and 19.39 yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 118%, 61%, and 32% respectively [11] - The company's reasonable valuation range is estimated to be between 222.90 and 251.97 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 20%-35% from the current stock price [11] Industry Insights - The cleanroom sector is identified as a bottleneck in global AI infrastructure, with cleanrooms accounting for 10%-20% of total investment in AI computing power [9] - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to continue growing due to the ongoing expansion of the semiconductor industry and the increasing complexity of AI applications [10] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure cycle driven by AI is considered a "super cycle," with sustained investment expected through 2028 [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is cautious, with a net outflow of 355 billion yuan in the last week of March, reflecting a decline in investor confidence [16] - The consumer services sector, particularly tourism, is experiencing a resurgence as spring holidays approach, with significant increases in bookings and travel activity [21][20] - The media and internet sectors are also adapting to new trends, with the launch of Seedance 2.0 and a focus on AI-driven content creation [24][26]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Tabl 点评报告 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 中国石油(601857.SH) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_A 刘红光 uthor 石化行业联席首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [油气龙头经营业绩稳健， Table_Title] 全产业链抗风险能力突出 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件： ummary] 2025 年 3 月 29 日晚，中国石油发布 2025 年年度报告。2025 年公 司实现营业收入 28,644.69 亿元，同比下降 2.50%；实现 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年，国际油价震荡下行，布油现货均价为68.19美元/桶，同比-14.6%。境内天然气需求保持增长，全 年天然气消费量同比增长2.9%；境内成品油需求主要受到可替代能源影响，消费量同比下降4.1%，其中， 汽油同比下降4.5%，柴油同比下降5.6%，煤油同比增长4.4%；境内主要化工产品需求保持增长，乙烯当 量消费量同比增长8.5%，但新增消费难以抵消新增供应压力，整体化工毛利持续下降。公司积极应对形势 变化，持续加大勘探开发力度，深入推进炼化转型升级，依托全产业链优势抵御油价波动，25年盈利韧性 凸显。公司现金流显著改善，25年实现经营现金流净额4125亿元，同比+1.5%，实现自由现金流1202亿 元，同比+15.2%。 2025年，公司上游业务受油价下跌影响，实现经营利润1361亿元，同比-14.8%。受益于天然气销量增长和 资源池优化，公司天然气销售业务实现经营利润608亿元，同比+12.6%。得益于公司全产业链优势和炼化 产业链深入推进转型升级，公司炼化业务克服炼油产品需求下降、化工品盈利仍在低位的困难，实现经营 利润243亿元，同比+13.4%，销售 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【越秀服务（6626.HK）】业务结构调整毛利率下滑，物管核心支柱作用凸显——2025年度业绩点评 越秀服务2025年度实现收入39.02亿元，同比微增0.9%；归母净利润2.74亿元，同比下降22.5%;物业管理服务收 入14.99亿元，同比+21.3%，占总收入比38.4%,核心业务保持了稳健增长态势。 （何缅南/韦勇强）2026-03-30 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【天齐锂业（002466.SZ）】业绩扭亏为盈，资源产能稳步扩张——2025年年报点评 2025年，公司实现营业收入103.46亿元，同比下降20.80%；归母净利润4.63亿元，实现扭亏为盈。分季度看， 2025年第四季度公司实现营业收入29 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved total operating revenue of 286,446.9 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.50% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15,730.2 million yuan, down 4.48% year-on-year - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 69,521.3 million yuan, an increase of 2.19% year-on-year but a decrease of 3.33% quarter-on-quarter - The net profit for Q4 2025 was 3,102.3 million yuan, down 2.72% year-on-year and down 26.64% quarter-on-quarter [2][14] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue for 2025 was 286,446.9 million yuan, with a projected increase to 309,075.7 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth of 7.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 190,343 million yuan in 2026, a growth of 21.0% from 2025 - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.04 yuan in 2026, up from 0.86 yuan in 2025 - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 11.3% in 2026, compared to 9.9% in 2025 [3][12] Business Segments - Oil and Gas and New Energy: In Q4 2025, revenue from this segment was 202,418 million yuan, down 28.83% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping 68.36% year-on-year due to a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices - Natural Gas Sales: Revenue in Q4 2025 was 172,165 million yuan, up 18.45% year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 29.88% due to rising domestic natural gas sales and effective cost control [18][25] - Refining and Chemical: This segment reported revenue of 25,199.1 million yuan in Q4 2025, down 31.25% year-on-year, but operating profit improved by 55.60% due to lower raw material costs and product structure optimization [22] Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 13.79 yuan, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5 times the projected book value per share (BPS) of 9.19 yuan in 2026 [5][29] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 227.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 18.3 billion shares [6]