证券研究报告·行业点评报告·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业点评报告 2026-2027 年度中石油管道天然气购销合同 政策发布，销售价格同比持平 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 03 月 18 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 2025/3/18 2025/7/17 2025/11/15 2026/3/16 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 2026-03-16 《地缘冲突+气温回暖，美气回落、欧 洲&中国气价大涨；重视资源价值首 华燃气+具备长协成本优势企业新奥 股份、新奥能源、九丰能源》 2026-03-08 | | 管制气 | | | 非管制气 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-2027年管道气合同方案 | | 特定地区 | ...

PetroChina, China's biggest natural gas supplier, will keep its contract prices largely unchanged this year to shield industrial consumers from surging global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict https://t.co/40mgQIyiYw ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for selected companies within the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, with both EIA and IEA significantly lowering their global oil supply forecasts for the year [6][7]. - EIA projects the average crude oil price for 2026 to be $79 per barrel, an increase of $21 from the previous month, while the average for 2027 is projected at $64 per barrel, up by $11 [6][7]. - Demand forecasts show IEA has reduced its 2026 oil demand growth estimate to 640,000 barrels per day, down by 210,000 barrels per day from last month, while EIA has slightly increased its forecast to 1.23 million barrels per day for 2026 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Oil prices have risen, with Brent crude futures closing at $103.14 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 11.27%, and WTI futures at $98.71 per barrel, up 8.59% [24]. - The report notes a significant increase in drilling activity, with the number of active rigs in the U.S. rising to 553, a slight increase from the previous week but a decrease of 39 year-on-year [37]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that refining margins have improved, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $54.03 per barrel, an increase of $17.35 from the previous week [6]. - The report anticipates that refining profitability will gradually improve as economic recovery progresses [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have increased, with the average price in East China reaching 6,475 RMB per ton, up 19.01% week-on-week [6]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry is expected to see gradual improvement as supply and demand dynamics tighten [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [21]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering to benefit from sustained high capital expenditures in exploration and development [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, recommending specific companies for investment opportunities [3][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have led to increased oil prices and significant downward revisions in global oil supply forecasts by EIA and IEA [6][7]. - EIA projects the average crude oil price for 2026 to be $79 per barrel, up by $21 from the previous month, while the average for 2027 is projected at $64 per barrel, an increase of $11 [6][7]. - Demand forecasts show IEA has significantly reduced its 2026 oil demand growth estimate to 640,000 barrels per day, while EIA has slightly increased its forecast to 1.23 million barrels per day [11][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $103.14 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 11.27% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 8.59% to $98.71 per barrel [27]. - The report notes a rise in drilling rig counts, with the U.S. rig count increasing to 553, up by 2 from the previous week, although down by 39 year-on-year [43][46]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $54.03 per barrel, an increase of $17.35 from the previous week [6]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current margins being at lower levels [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, with the average price in East China reaching 6,475 yuan per ton, up by 19.01% week-on-week [6]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [22]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering to benefit from sustained high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [22].

Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas IEA Oil Market Update - Initial perspectives. Why worry? Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com 12 March 2026 Brian Ho, CFA +852 2123 2615 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2123 2629 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com The IEA has cut its 2026 oil-demand growth forecast by 0.1MMbls/d (+0.7MMbls/d to 104.8MMbls/d), citing the Iran war's impact on air travel and LPG supplies, along wit ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：中东冲突升级，国际油价继续上涨 大化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工证券分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别96.5/92.0美元/桶，较上周分别+12.7/+13.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.6/4.4/4.2/0.3亿桶，环比 +383/+382/+0/+12万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1368万桶/天，环比-2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周412台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周170部，环比+2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1617万桶/天，环比+33万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.8%，环比+1.6pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | ——看好 | | --- | | 行业评级 | 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：伊朗局势未有缓和 [Table_T，国际油价 itle] 继续高位 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 3 月 15 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2026年 3月 13 日当周，地缘局势扰动剧烈，国际 油价大幅上涨。本周初，中东地缘紧张局势持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡 航运受阻，沙特、阿联酋等国生产与出口受到冲击；卡塔尔警告海湾 地区能源出口国或在数周内集体停产，市场对供应中断的 ...

2026 年 3 月 15 日 行业研究 锚定供应链安全，筑牢能源安全底线 ——石油化工行业周报第 442 期（20260309—20260315） 要点 美伊冲突持续凸显能源安全重要性，"十五五"规划纲要强调能源资源供应 保障。本周美伊冲突持续，伊朗维持对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，截断中东能源出 口，原油供给端受到大幅度冲击，驱动油价宽幅上涨。3 月 13 日，我国"十 五五"规划纲要正式发布，"十五五"规划纲要第五十二章第二节指出，坚持 立足国内、补齐短板、多元保障、强化储备，加强能源产供储销体系建设，坚 持油气核心需求自主保障，加强能源资源开发国际合作，维护战略通道安全等。 今年以来国际局势动荡加剧，中东地区地缘冲突威胁全球能源运输战略通道， 全球能源供应链安全受到较大挑战，维护我国能源安全的重要性不断增强。 担当国内能源保供"顶梁柱"，"三桶油"战略价值凸显。作为我国能源保 供的主力军，"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支，在外部环境不确定性加剧、 油价面临大幅波动的背景下，"三桶油"将继续加强增储上产，中国石油、中 国石化、中国海油 25 年油气当量产量计划分别同比增长 1.6%、1.5%、5.9%。 "三桶油 ...

释储无法弥补供给缺口，油价具备持续上涨空间 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 42.00 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 36.49 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 推荐 | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 12.05 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.33 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 推荐 | | 603393.S ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：霍尔木兹封锁主导近期油价走势，特朗普政府推动的一系列措施均不足以缓解受阻带来的供应紧张，中东 产油国储油空间耗尽，迫使削减产量，造成实际供应损失，原油市场的恐慌持续升级，地缘风险溢价或不断推升。 截止 3 月 12 日，WTI 现货收于 95.73 美元，环比+14.72 美元；BRENT 现货收于 101.08 美元，环比+12.96 美元。 EIA3 月 6 日当周商业原油库存环比+382.4 万桶，前值+347.5 万桶。其中库欣原油环比+11.7 万桶，前值+156.4 万桶。汽油库存环比-365.4 万桶，前值-170.4 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+1.6%至 90.8%。美国原油库存上升，净进 口量环比增加。美国产量 1367.8 万桶/天，美国净进口数据环比+28.4%。截至 3 月 6 日当周，美国活跃石油钻机 数环比+4 部至 411 部。 炼油：汽油刚需平稳，出行需求无明显增量。柴油工矿、物流刚需缓慢恢复，但整体复苏力度偏弱，刚需为主、 投机需求清淡。新一轮调价窗口大幅上 ...