ZGXT(SZ:000831) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-06-07 08:21Core Viewpoint - China's export control measures on rare earths are seen as a response to international norms, while Western companies express concerns over a "rare earth crisis," misinterpreting it as a trade weapon against the U.S. [1] Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth processing sector, controlling over 92% of the processing stage and more than 60% of global rare earth production in 2023 [4][2] - The U.S. Geological Survey reported that from 2020 to 2023, 70% of the rare earth compounds and metals imported by the U.S. came from China [4] - Analysts indicate that despite Australia having rich mineral reserves, it is not prepared to challenge China's dominance in rare earth processing [1][4] Group 2: Australia's Response and Challenges - Australian Prime Minister Albanese pledged to invest AUD 1.2 billion (approximately CNY 5.6 billion) to establish a strategic reserve for critical minerals, including rare earths [1] - Australia is the largest producer of lithium and cobalt, but its refining and export capabilities for rare earths remain limited [6][4] - Experts warn that even with increased investment, Australia will still rely on China for rare earth processing until at least 2026 [6][4] Group 3: Implications of Export Controls - China's recent export controls on key minerals, including gallium and germanium, could impact U.S. military production across over 1,000 weapon systems [4][6] - Analysts suggest that if Australia aligns too closely with Western interests, it may expose its weaknesses in rare earth processing to Chinese retaliation [6][7] - The introduction of a tracking system for rare earth exports by China aims to monitor production and trade, indicating a tightening of control over the sector [7]