国金·月度金股 8 月： | 代码 | 简称 | 行业 | 收盘价 | 流通市值 | | EPS(元) | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/28 | 百万元 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000425.SZ | 徐工机械 | 工程机械 | 8.60 | 69632.81 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 12.72 | 9.82 | | 603308.SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 27.18 | 18456.21 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 41.50 | 29.54 | | 000831.SZ | 中国稀土 | 小金属 | 45.89 | 48699.42 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 126.42 | 102.43 | | 6881.HK | 中国银河* | 证券Ⅱ | 11.24 | 41486.67 | 1.06 | 1.20 | 10.60 | 9.37 | | 1428.HK ...

Core Insights - The A-share rare earth permanent magnet sector has shown renewed activity, with significant market interest in related products, particularly the rare earth ETF (516780) which recorded a trading volume of 253 million yuan on July 28, marking seven consecutive trading days with over 200 million yuan in daily trading volume, indicating strong capital inflow [1] - The rare earth ETF has seen a net inflow of 127 million yuan over the past five trading days, with its total scale reaching 1.731 billion yuan as of July 28, the highest in nearly four years [1] - The price of praseodymium has increased, reflecting the strategic value of rare earth resources amid the global energy revolution and geopolitical tensions [1] Industry Analysis - A recent report from Founder Securities indicates that the rare earth magnetic materials sector is experiencing tightening supply expectations due to the ban on rare earth mining in Myanmar's Kachin region by the end of 2025 and the zero imports of rare earth metals by the U.S. in June, leading to a price surge for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which has surpassed 500,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rare earth ETF (516780) closely tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with the top five constituent stocks being Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Greeenmei, and Lingyi Technology, all of which are competitive leaders in the industry [2] - The management of the rare earth ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has over 18 years of ETF operation experience and has created several benchmark ETFs, with its total ETF scale exceeding 520 billion yuan as of July 28, placing it in the top tier of the industry [2] Market Outlook - With improving demand and expectations of tightening rare earth supply, prices in the rare earth industry are likely to be supported, presenting potential investment opportunities in the rare earth sector, particularly in the rare earth ETF (516780) and its linked funds [3]

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Rare Metals ETF has a turnover rate of 6.87% with a transaction volume of 83.93 million yuan, and it ranks first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 131 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 1.22 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares reached 1.843 billion, a three-month high, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past six days, the Rare Metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a single-day peak of 50.91 million yuan, totaling 177 million yuan in net inflows [3] - As of July 28, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 59.46% over the past year, ranking 267 out of 2938 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.09% [3] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06%, averaging a monthly return of 7.76% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 9.87% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Market Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the domestic "anti-involution" policies are intensifying, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to strong performance in the metals sector [4] - The price of polysilicon has successfully recovered, boosting market confidence, which has spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [4] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases, such as stricter mining rights reviews for lithium and strategic enhancements and shortages for rare earths [4] - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned cobalt exports since February, with extensions in June, leading to a depletion of in-transit cobalt mines, and anticipates that the peak season in September and October will drive inventory reductions [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index as of June 30, 2025, include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Western Superconducting, Zhongmin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 54.07% of the index [4]

哪个行业反内卷最受益？20250728 摘要 互联网平台通过补贴进行低价倾销，追求市场排名，但此举易引发垄断 及损害上游供应商利益，需国家市场监管总局加强管制，并由国家质量 监管总局制定行业标准，整治以次充好等问题。 地方政府招商补贴易导致企业零成本扩张，引发产能过剩和囚徒困境。 解决之道在于调整定价机制，如采用成本加成模式，以保护公共品行业， 避免不合理补贴。 国家通过修订价格法，明确不当价格认定行为，完善低价倾销认定标准， 规范市场价格秩序，并调整政府定价机制，从直接规定价格水平转变为 制定定价机制，以应对内卷现象。 稀土行业因中国供应优势明显，易实现反内卷。国家打击非法稀土，控 制合法供应，并减少进口，提升北方稀土等上市公司市场份额，年初至 今稀土价格同比上涨约 30%。 互联网平台外卖补贴虽提升流量，但也裹挟商家，降低利润。市场监管 总局约谈平台，要求提升骑手、商家及饭菜品质保障。京东七鲜小厨通 过标准化菜品和机器炒菜提升品质，实现差异化竞争。 Q&A 当前在反内卷的背景下，哪些行业可能最受益？ 哪些行业在反内卷方面比较容易实现？ 在反内卷的背景下，最受益的行业主要有两个标准：一是反内卷带来的行情持 ...

自特朗普宣布"对等关税"依赖，我苹果也一步步加紧了对稀土出口的管制措施，在这样的情况下，不少国家都坐不住了。 7月9日，美媒爆料，印度正计划投资250亿卢比扶持稀土产业，次日，美政府也被爆出砸下重金，要挑战中国在稀土行业中的地位，但美国企业却纷纷不看 好，就在25日当天，不少美国企业坐不住了，纷纷站出来表态，更是有一位总裁站出来说了句实话。 自从特朗普重新上位之后，开始新的一轮美国霸凌，对全世界征收关税，在这样之重的关税之下，各个国家都开始反击，开始对美国进行反制，搞农业的制 裁农业搞制造业的在制造业上做手脚，至于中国对美国的制裁则是在稀土这一方面。 对于普通人来说，稀土是一个比较遥远的存在，能够得知的有关于他的信息，也就是该资源是各个国家研究高科技产品，促进科技发展时绝对无法脱离的一 种重要材料，在世界上拥有该资源的国家其实并不多，中国就算是其中之一。 不单单只是美国被卡脖子，中国在把稀土资源牢牢把控在手之后，印度的政府就受不了了，他们的汽车行业因为稀土资源不够用，没有办法拿到和过去一样 更加物美价廉的稀土资源而感到头疼。 被卡着难受，本来就赚不着钱了，更是拿不出来这么多钱来买过去曾经很容易得到的资源，实在 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 供给收缩预期叠加反内卷催化，碳酸锂波动率放大 一周一议：碳酸锂缘何大涨？ 本周碳酸锂主力合约 2509 周内涨幅 18.3%，收于 80520 元/吨，波动率放大明显，较 6 月低点（58400）涨 幅 37.9%。我们认为碳酸锂大涨最直接触发点在于——供给端收缩预期，反内卷催化下价格迎来快速修复。 回顾 7 月以来锂行业的重大事件：1）7 月 14 日，宜春市自然资源局下发通知，要求当地 8 家涉锂矿山企 业编制储量核实报告，并在 9 月30 日前完成报告编制，因这些矿权存在"规避审批权限、越权办理手续" 等问题。这也表明，监管部门正在加快治理锂资源违规开发现象。2）7 月 17 日，因违规开采问题，藏格矿 业发布公告称，其全资子公司藏格锂业已被责令停产、整改。据电池中国网，核心问题在于：其依托的察 尔汗盐湖钾镁矿采矿权仅登记钾盐开采，未包含锂资源开采许可。3）7月 21日晚，江特电机发布公告披露， 其全资子公司宜春银锂拟于 7 月 25 日启动停产检修，涉及全部锂盐生产线，预计检修时长约 26 天。这一 系列事件，进一步加剧了市场对碳酸锂供给收缩的预期 ...

中国以精准的策略掌控着稀土供应，在与美国的博弈中占据主动。近期，美国遭遇稀土短缺，而六月对 美出口稀土磁体激增660%至353吨的消息，引发了广泛关注。这一数字与五月仅53吨的出口量形成鲜明 对比，看似惊人的增长背后，实则蕴含着中国深思熟虑的战略布局。 这并非中美达成全面协议的结果。回顾历史，中美关税大战期间，中国曾以稀土为筹码进行对等反制， 迫使马斯克亲自奔走斡旋，甚至一度导致美国F-35战机生产受阻。虽然关税谈判取得进展，但出口许可 证的发放并非一蹴而就，四月和五月的出口数据也反映了这一谨慎态度。直到六月，双方达成新协议： 中国保证稀土供应，美国则放松对H20芯片的限制。 然而，对美353吨的稀土出口，相较于中国6月全球3188吨的总出口量，比例微乎其微。这表明中国并非 全面放开，而是有限度的松动，实则仍严控着稀土出口。中国此举高明之处在于：它以"温水煮青蛙"的 方式，既避免了美国孤注一掷地进行技术突围，又稳固了自身在供应链中的主导地位。 美国对稀土的依赖程度远超中国对H20芯片的需求。美国本土稀土企业MP Materials近期获得4亿美元政 府投资，计划年产1000吨商业磁铁，而中国六月出口的353吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming China-U.S. economic and trade talks are complicated by U.S. attempts to introduce new issues, particularly regarding China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, which could affect the negotiations and the broader economic relationship between the two countries [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China's rare earth exports to the U.S. surged to 352.8 tons in June, a 660% increase from May, indicating China's commitment to fulfilling trade agreements [1]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire to include China's purchases of Russian and Iranian oil in the upcoming trade negotiations, reflecting a shift in U.S. strategy [3][4]. - The U.S. aims to leverage the oil purchase issue to gain negotiation advantages and to disrupt the economic ties between China and Russia [4][6]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - China maintains strict control over its rare earth export quotas to the U.S., ensuring that it retains significant leverage in the supply chain [6]. - China opposes U.S. unilateral sanctions and emphasizes that its oil trade with Russia and Iran is based on mutual benefit and normal international trade rules [6][9]. - The Chinese government is actively diversifying its energy import sources to reduce dependency on any single supplier, enhancing its energy security [6][9]. Group 3: Negotiation Challenges - The upcoming third round of China-U.S. trade talks is expected to be contentious, with China rejecting the politicization of trade issues [7]. - If the U.S. insists on including unrelated geopolitical issues in the negotiations, it risks a breakdown in talks, which could have negative repercussions for both economies [7][9]. - China's commitment to dialogue and negotiation is firm, but it is prepared to defend its national interests against U.S. pressure [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is taking significant steps to reduce its reliance on China for rare earth minerals by investing in domestic production, exemplified by the $400 million investment in MP Materials, the largest rare earth producer in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: U.S. Government Actions - The Pentagon agreed to purchase $400 million in convertible preferred stock from MP Materials, making it the largest shareholder [1] - The U.S. aims to stimulate domestic exploration and production of critical minerals to compete with China [1][5] - The investment reflects a broader strategy to break the bottleneck in critical mineral supply chains [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Despite having rare earth resources, the U.S. faces challenges in attracting investors willing to take risks in the mining sector [1][5] - The rare earth market lacks the mature financial structures seen in oil and other commodities, making it difficult for companies to secure funding [4] - Many U.S. rare earth companies trade on smaller exchanges in Canada or Australia, indicating limited domestic investment interest [1][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - China dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for over 60% of production and 92% of processing capacity [4] - The U.S. Geological Survey reported that 70% of rare earth compounds and metals imported by the U.S. came from China between 2020 and 2023 [4] - Recent Chinese export controls on rare earths have prompted U.S. companies to seek alternative supply sources [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of new mining projects in the U.S. is expected to take at least 10 to 20 years and require substantial investment, potentially in the trillions [8] - The industry faces significant hurdles, including a lack of skilled labor and expertise in processing rare earth materials [8] - Other countries are also attempting to diversify their rare earth supply chains, but they face challenges in terms of time, cost, and human capital [6][8]

欧盟主席冯德莱恩在布鲁塞尔的会议室里，面对镜头，掷地有声地宣布："欧盟不会接受单边关税胁迫！" 这句话的底气，源于她北京之行后对欧洲政治格 局的重新审视，更源于中国与美国之间微妙力量平衡的转变。 离开北京时，冯德莱恩的专机划过华北平原上空，舷窗外，太平洋两岸的力量格局正在重 构。机舱内，欧盟贸易专员正紧急测算着两种方案的经济账：接受美国30%的关税，欧盟年度损失将超过3000亿欧元；转向中国市场，则能为新能源产业争 取到关键稀土供应保障。这笔复杂的经济账，清晰地展现了欧盟当前的战略困境。 冯德莱恩此次北京之行，并非外界解读的"求救之旅"，而是她寻求战略自主的关键一步。 此前，欧盟深陷内外交困的泥潭：内部，2028-2034年总额2万亿欧 元的长期预算案遭德国否决，暴露了欧盟内部在财政分配上的深刻裂痕，也重创了冯德莱恩的领导权威；外部，美国对欧盟加征25%的汽车关税、50%的钢 铝关税以及10%的"基准关税"，更以30%的关税威胁，对欧盟经济命脉构成严重威胁，甚至要求欧盟企业迁往美国，彻底撕裂了盟友之间的伪装。与此同 时，欧盟85%的稀土依赖进口，其中超过60%来自中国，中国4月实施的中重稀土出口管制，让欧洲企 ...