亏损加剧、商业化遇阻，氢燃料电池汽车深陷“政策依赖症”

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen fuel cell industry is facing significant challenges, including poor financial performance, reliance on financing, and a lack of stable policy support as existing policies near expiration [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue of Yihuatong, known as the "first stock of hydrogen energy," dropped to 367 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 54.21%, with net losses expanding to 456 million yuan [2][3]. - Four leading companies in the hydrogen energy sector reported a combined loss exceeding 1.81 billion yuan in 2024, with average losses increasing by over 60% [3][4]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The transition from purchase subsidies to demonstration application support for fuel cell vehicles has created uncertainty, leading to market and capital hesitance [2][4]. - The current policy framework is at risk of a gap as the first round of demonstration applications nears completion, which could hinder financing, especially for private enterprises [2][4]. Industry Challenges - The hydrogen fuel cell companies are grappling with multiple issues, including accounts receivable crises, heavy R&D investments, and declining stack prices [4][5]. - Delays in government subsidies have exacerbated cash flow issues, with companies facing significant financial strain due to late payments [4][5]. Cost and Commercialization Issues - The hydrogen industry has not achieved effective commercialization, primarily due to the disparity between hydrogen production costs and terminal demand, as well as a lack of diverse application scenarios [6][7]. - The cost of gray hydrogen is approximately 10 yuan per kilogram, while green hydrogen costs between 30 to 40 yuan per kilogram, making it economically unfeasible for widespread adoption [6][7]. Transportation and Usage Challenges - Transportation costs for hydrogen are high, with storage and transportation accounting for 30% to 50% of terminal costs, and the current infrastructure is limited [7][8]. - The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is overly reliant on the logistics sector, which has shown vulnerability, as evidenced by a 12.6% decline in hydrogen heavy truck sales in 2024 [8]. Industry Demands - Industry stakeholders are calling for continuous policy support, a unified national hydrogen highway network, specialized financing channels, cost reduction for green hydrogen, and diversification of application scenarios [9][10]. - There is a consensus on the need for a long-term mechanism to prevent policy gaps that could stifle capital investment and technological progress [9][10]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is optimism regarding the potential for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to achieve cost parity with diesel vehicles within the next 3 to 5 years [11]. - The industry anticipates that the next five years will be critical for policy alignment, cost reduction, and expanding application scenarios to ensure sustainable growth [11].