过去两个月暴涨70%，市值突破万亿，AI芯片火爆，但博通太贵了？

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's stock has surged 70% over the past two months, surpassing a market capitalization of $1 trillion, reflecting investor optimism regarding its growth in the AI chip sector [1] Financial Performance - Broadcom expects third-quarter revenue from AI processing and networking chips to reach $5.1 billion, a 60% year-over-year increase, accounting for approximately one-third of total sales [3] - Following the earnings report, Broadcom's stock declined for two consecutive days due to lower-than-expected guidance [3] Customer Concentration and Valuation Risks - Broadcom's AI revenue is highly dependent on Google, with Google TPU orders potentially accounting for over 80% of Broadcom's ASIC revenue, posing significant risks if Google changes its strategy [4] - Broadcom's expected price-to-earnings ratio is 33.6, which is a 23% premium over the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and close to a ten-year high, indicating valuation concerns [6] Performance and Cost Challenges - Google's latest custom AI chip performance is reportedly only about half that of NVIDIA's corresponding products, raising concerns about financial viability [7] - The production costs of Broadcom's custom chips, while lower than NVIDIA's high-end chips, are offset by the higher costs of supporting systems and the burden of developing compatible software [7] Long-term Growth Potential - Despite challenges, Bank of America remains optimistic about Broadcom's growth prospects, predicting that the overall demand from the AI wave will support Broadcom's needs [8] - Broadcom's earnings per share could potentially increase by $13-14 if it achieves its target midpoint of $75 billion in AI sales by fiscal year 2027 [8] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the custom chip market will grow from $12 billion last year to approximately $30 billion by 2027, providing significant growth opportunities for Broadcom [8]