CoWoS，劲敌来了

Core Insights - Advanced packaging is emerging as a critical technology in the semiconductor industry, with FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging) gaining significant attention as a potential successor to TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology [1][4][8] Industry Overview - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9%, increasing from $39.2 billion in 2023 to $81.1 billion by 2029 [8] - FOPLP is expected to see a remarkable CAGR of 32.5%, growing from $4.1 million in 2022 to $221 million by 2028 [11] Technology Comparison - Advanced packaging can be categorized into three main types: Flip Chip, 2.5D/3D IC packaging, and Fan-Out Packaging [2] - FOPLP offers advantages over traditional FOWLP (Fan-Out Wafer Level Packaging) by utilizing larger panel sizes, which enhances area utilization and reduces costs [6][7] Key Players and Developments - SpaceX is entering the advanced packaging space with plans to establish FOPLP production capacity in Texas, featuring the industry's largest substrate size of 700mm x 700mm [1] - TSMC is actively expanding its CoWoS capacity, with plans to increase monthly production from 35,000 wafers to 70,000 by the end of 2025, contributing over 10% to its revenue [3] - ASE (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering) is investing $200 million to set up FOPLP production lines in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with trial production expected by the end of this year [1][14] Material Innovations - FOPLP utilizes glass substrates, which provide mechanical, physical, and optical advantages over traditional silicon materials, making it a focus for major companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [7][8] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its potential, FOPLP has not yet achieved mass production due to yield issues and a lack of standardization in panel sizes, which complicates system design [19] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards FOPLP as a mainstream solution, with companies like ASE and TSMC making significant investments to overcome current challenges [12][14][17]