Core Viewpoint - The company, China Resources Beverage, is a leading player in the packaged water market with its core brand "Yibao" and aims to explore a second growth curve in the beverage sector through product diversification and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Packaged Water Business - The packaged water market in China grew from 152.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1%, indicating steady industry growth [2]. - The company holds an 18.4% market share in the packaged water sector, ranking second in the industry [1]. - The company’s self-production rate is expected to exceed 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, improving profitability as the reliance on contract manufacturing decreases [2]. Beverage Business - The company began exploring the beverage sector in 2011 and launched its own brand "Zhiben Qingrun" in 2021, which has gained significant market share, particularly in chrysanthemum tea, reaching 38.5% in 2023 [3]. - The company has faced challenges with high sales expense ratios, approximately 30% in 2023, but ongoing product launches and improved distribution efficiency are expected to enhance profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.07 billion yuan, 15.06 billion yuan, and 16.14 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.92 billion yuan, 2.24 billion yuan, and 2.61 billion yuan [3]. - The company’s net profit margin is currently below the industry average, indicating significant room for improvement [3]. - The initial coverage rating for the company is "Buy," reflecting optimism about its growth potential in both the packaged water and beverage sectors [3].
华润饮料(2460.HK)：华润饮料深度报告：清润至本 方兴未艾