东兴证券：锂电板块景气度回暖 固态电池、钠电有望迎来规模化应用节点

Group 1: Industry Overview - The demand in the supply chain remains strong in Q1 2025, with the battery sector showing signs of recovery in both profitability and revenue [1] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a rebound in overall prosperity, driven by new technologies like solid-state batteries, which are anticipated to catalyze market growth starting in the second half of 2024 [1] - The industry is projected to experience profit recovery and valuation enhancement from 2025 to 2026 as new technologies are commercialized [1] Group 2: Battery Sector Insights - The current landscape in the lithium battery supply chain is favorable, with stable supply-side changes expected to lead to simultaneous revenue and profit increases [2] - Leading companies with differentiated products and advanced manufacturing capabilities are likely to maintain profitability, while some second-tier manufacturers may capture new customer orders and benefit from the trend of industry globalization [2] - Companies like Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ) and CATL (300750.SZ) are expected to benefit from the upcoming harvest period of production capacity and competitive advantages from differentiated products [2] Group 3: Material Sector Insights - Despite some companies facing declining profit margins and low capacity profitability, the concentration in the lithium battery material sector is expected to increase, leading to a potential recovery in profit levels [2] - The market share of ternary cathode materials is anticipated to rebound due to improved safety performance, with potential applications in semi-solid and sodium batteries [2] - Companies such as Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) are expected to benefit from the positive outlook on ternary cathode materials [2] Group 4: New Technology Catalysts - Solid-state batteries are entering a rapid growth phase, with companies releasing technology solutions and industrial applications, which may accelerate the commercialization process [3] - Companies with a first-mover advantage in solid-state battery technology are likely to benefit significantly, with Guoxuan High-Tech being highlighted for its leading position [3] - Sodium batteries have reached a critical cost threshold for large-scale applications, particularly in extreme environment energy storage and electric two-wheelers, with companies like CATL and Huayang Co. (600348.SH) expected to benefit from this trend [3]