铂金凶猛？高盛不看好！

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices surged to a four-year high of $1280 per ounce, driven primarily by speculative trading and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs warns that the current speculative frenzy in platinum is unlikely to be sustainable, predicting a price correction once speculative interest wanes [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported a projected supply deficit of approximately 1 million ounces (about 31 tons) for the year, equating to nearly 20% of annual mineral production [1] Group 2: Chinese Market Sensitivity - The Chinese market accounts for about 60% of global new platinum production, with buyers exhibiting high price sensitivity—buying heavily at low prices and withdrawing quickly at high prices [3] - Nearly 50% of China's platinum imports are driven by price-sensitive jewelry and investment demand, which surged following a price drop in April [3] - The recent price rebound since mid-May has suppressed Chinese jewelry and investment demand, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Demand - The demand for platinum is facing structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China, which is reducing the long-term need for platinum in automotive catalysts [4] - The peak scale of gasoline vehicles in China is expected to exert structural pressure on platinum demand, while Western markets are not expected to provide significant positive balance for platinum prices [4] Group 4: Global Supply Outlook - Global platinum supply is expected to remain stable or grow moderately unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, as South Africa accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [5] - South African platinum group metal producers project a moderate supply increase of 12% by 2025, although operational disruptions remain a significant risk [6] - Since March 2024, load shedding in South Africa has nearly ceased, with low risks of reoccurring disruptive power outages, although labor strikes still pose a threat to production [6]