KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-12 08:11Core Viewpoint - The market circulation price of Feitian Moutai has recently fallen below 2000 yuan per bottle, raising concerns about its implications for Kweichow Moutai and the future price trend of Feitian Moutai [1][3][10]. Price Trends - As of June 11, the price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 1990 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, and further declined to 1980 yuan on June 12 [3][8]. - The price has been on a downward trend, dropping from 2090 yuan per bottle a month ago and from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a decline of approximately 10% [3][4]. - In early 2024, the price was as high as 2600-2700 yuan per bottle before starting to decrease [3]. Other Moutai Products - Other Moutai products are also experiencing price declines. For instance, Moutai 15 years was priced at 4570 yuan per bottle on June 11, down from 4750 yuan a month prior [4]. - Various Moutai products, including Moutai Prince and Moutai Zodiac, have seen significant price drops, with Moutai Prince falling from a peak of 4500 yuan to around 2580 yuan [7]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - The price drop is attributed to several factors, including e-commerce platforms offering low-priced Feitian Moutai during promotional events like "6·18," with prices as low as 1499 yuan [8][9]. - The recent "ban on alcohol" policy, which restricts high-end alcohol consumption in official settings, has also contributed to reduced demand for premium products like Feitian Moutai [8][9]. - The current period is traditionally a low season for liquor consumption, further exacerbating the price decline [9]. Future Price Outlook - The breach of the 2000 yuan mark for Feitian Moutai could signal a shift towards its suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, potentially losing its premium status [10]. - Analysts predict that the overall market for high-end liquor will continue to face challenges, with expectations of further price declines in the coming months due to high inventory and reduced demand [10].