Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-12 16:03Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating a potential reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The adjustment in recession probability suggests that Goldman Sachs has identified some positive economic signals, including a stable job market, sustained consumer spending, and recovery in certain sectors [3]. - Despite the lowered recession probability, the U.S. economy still faces significant uncertainties, including global economic complexities, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial market volatility [3][5]. Market Reaction - The revised forecast may positively influence investor sentiment, potentially boosting confidence in risk assets and leading to short-term increases in stock and bond markets [4]. - There exists a divergence in market perspectives, with some economists believing the U.S. economy has passed its most challenging phase, while others caution that the recovery foundation remains fragile [4]. Policy Implications - The effectiveness of U.S. government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies will be crucial in supporting economic recovery while avoiding excessive inflation or other risks [4][5]. - A misstep in policy coordination could elevate the risk of economic recession, despite the current positive signals from Goldman Sachs [5].