茅台跌破两千，禁酒令是更大危机，国酒只有走入民间才能涅槃重生

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in the price and popularity of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," and explores the reasons behind this trend, questioning whether it can experience a revival in the future. Group 1: The Rise of Moutai - From 2018 to 2023, Moutai created a myth in the Chinese consumer market, with its official price of 1499 yuan often exceeding 3000 yuan in retail [3] - During its peak, Moutai was seen as a wealth-generating tool, with distributors reporting profits of over 2000 yuan per bottle, leading to a distorted industry chain [3] - Moutai's stock price reached over 2600 yuan in 2021, marking its financial peak and transforming it into a financial derivative [5] Group 2: The Burst of the Bubble - Starting in 2024, Moutai's pricing system began to collapse, with wholesale prices dropping below 1800 yuan by June 2025, a 50% decrease from peak values [8] - The younger generation (under 25) has reduced their consumption of Moutai by 47%, favoring lower-alcohol beverages instead [10] - A new "ban on alcohol" policy in 2024 led to a 70% reduction in government alcohol spending, significantly impacting Moutai's sales [10] Group 3: The Struggle for Survival - In 2025, Moutai initiated a transformation to return to its roots, focusing on making the product more accessible and relevant to consumers [14] - The introduction of smaller bottle sizes and lower-alcohol options has seen a 300% increase in orders for Moutai as wedding wine [16] - Moutai is also working to eliminate intermediaries, with its direct sales platform controlling 76% of traffic, significantly reducing distributor profit margins [16] Group 4: Cultural and Market Transformation - Moutai is attempting to reshape its cultural identity by promoting itself as a family heritage product and creating new consumption scenarios [18] - The company aims to transition from being a symbol of power to a beloved consumer product, emphasizing quality over scarcity [18] - The historical context suggests that Moutai has previously adapted to market changes, indicating a potential path forward through innovation and consumer engagement [18]