后补贴时代 车市还有哪些新动能

Core Insights - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy has significantly stimulated the automotive market, with over 10 million subsidy applications since its implementation, indicating strong consumer interest and market activity [2][3] - In the first four months of 2024, China's automotive sales reached 10.06 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while new energy vehicle sales surged to 4.3 million units, marking a 46.3% growth [2] - The urgency among consumers to purchase vehicles is heightened by the impending expiration of full tax exemptions for new energy vehicles in 2026, prompting many to consider buying sooner rather than later [6][8] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has been pivotal in reversing negative growth trends in the automotive market, with over 6.8 million vehicles replaced under this initiative in 2024 alone [3][5] - The expansion of the policy to include vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards has broadened its impact, benefiting more consumers and stimulating demand [3][5] - The combination of subsidies and tax exemptions is expected to drive significant sales growth in the automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, with projections suggesting sales could reach 17 million units by 2025 [6][8] Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a shift, with approximately 60% of vehicles replaced under the "old-for-new" policy being new energy vehicles, reflecting a growing consumer preference for greener options [4][5] - The anticipated withdrawal of subsidies and tax exemptions may lead to a demand surge in the short term, but could also result in a demand pullback in subsequent years as consumers rush to take advantage of current incentives [7][8] - The automotive industry is urged to develop long-term strategies to stabilize market demand and reduce reliance on temporary stimulus measures [11] Infrastructure and Consumer Behavior - The lack of adequate parking and charging infrastructure remains a significant barrier to consumer adoption of new energy vehicles, highlighting the need for improved urban planning and resource allocation [10] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities to ease vehicle purchase restrictions have sparked renewed consumer interest, indicating that regulatory changes can effectively stimulate market activity [10] - The industry is encouraged to explore new growth areas, such as the automotive aftermarket and battery recycling, to sustain long-term demand and market health [14]