KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-13 03:45Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, marking a significant shift in the market and raising questions about whether this is a bubble burst or a return to rationality [1][10]. Price Movement - On June 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1980 yuan per bottle, officially breaking the 2000 yuan psychological barrier, with a single-day drop of 30 yuan [1]. - The price has decreased over 20% in just one year, compared to 2485 yuan in the same period last year and 2820 yuan the year before [1]. - E-commerce platforms have accelerated this price decline, with prices on platforms like Pinduoduo dropping to as low as 1880 yuan per bottle [1][6]. Market Sentiment - There is a palpable sense of panic in the market, with some retailers halting the buyback of Feitian Moutai due to unstable prices [7]. - Retailers report significant price drops, with some offering buyback prices as low as 1850 yuan [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding future prices has led to a cautious approach among retailers, with some fearing further declines [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A key signal prior to the price drop was the announcement of a 100% lottery purchase program at the Zunyi Moutai Airport, aimed at testing real demand [9]. - However, this initiative was abruptly canceled, highlighting the challenges Moutai faces in balancing price stability and inventory reduction [9]. Investor Perspectives - Investors are divided on the implications of the price crisis, with some viewing it as a necessary "de-financialization" process, while others see it as a consequence of aggressive channel reforms [10]. - Some investors believe that the current market conditions present a buying opportunity, despite the ongoing price declines [10][11]. - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has also been affected, dropping below 1460 yuan, with a nearly 10% decline over the past month [10]. Capital Market Reactions - Despite the negative sentiment, there is a notable split in capital flows, with some funds continuing to invest in the white liquor sector, indicating a potential for recovery [11]. - The future direction of Moutai will depend on whether it opts for strict price controls or embraces a market-driven value reassessment [11].