Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-17 01:18Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. households are expected to provide significant support to the stock market through increasing retirement savings, with an estimated direct purchase of $425 billion in U.S. stocks this year, second only to corporate purchases of $675 billion [1] - The "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) investment logic remains prevalent in U.S. household retirement accounts, indicating a lack of alternative assets outside of stocks [1] - The share of 401(k) plans in overall retirement savings is increasing, with a notable rise in stock allocation, from an average of 66% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, and 90% for those in their 20s [1][4] Group 2 - Over the past three months, demand for stocks from U.S. households has remained strong, contrasting with weaker fund inflows, with net purchases close to $20 billion during a market correction [4] - U.S. households directly hold 38% of U.S. stocks, and when including indirect holdings through funds, the percentage is even higher [4] - Currently, Americans allocate 49% of their financial assets to stocks, the highest level on record, surpassing the previous peak of 48% in 2000 [5] Group 3 - Despite strong household demand supporting the stock market, escalating conflicts in the Middle East could pose risks to the bull market, with potential declines of up to 20% for the S&P 500 if oil prices surge and inflation rises [6]