Bank of America(US:BAC) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-17 13:22Group 1 - The core sentiment among investors has shifted from recession fears in April to a "golden girl bull market" level, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [2][5][12] - The cash allocation among fund managers has decreased from 4.8% in April to 4.2%, marking the lowest level in three months [4] - There is a notable improvement in global economic expectations, with a net 46% of respondents anticipating economic weakness, a significant improvement from a record net 82% in April [5][19] Group 2 - The expectation of a soft landing has risen to 66%, the highest in eight months, while hard landing expectations have dropped from 49% in April to 13% [7] - Investors' extreme aversion to the US dollar has reached a 20-year low, with 31% of respondents indicating a low allocation to the dollar [8][10] - Shorting the dollar has become the third most crowded trade, accounting for 20% of positions, reflecting deep pessimism about the dollar's outlook [12] Group 3 - In terms of asset preferences for the next five years, 54% of respondents favor international stocks, while only 23% prefer US stocks, indicating a shift in confidence away from US assets [14][17] - Fund managers have increased their allocation to emerging market stocks to 28%, the highest since August 2023, while maintaining a 34% overweight in European stocks [15] - Corporate fundamentals are improving, with a net 3% of respondents believing companies are "under-leveraged," and global earnings expectations have significantly improved [18] Group 4 - Concerns about trade wars have eased, with the level of concern dropping from 80% in April to 47%, although it remains the largest tail risk [19] - A net 21% of respondents expect bond yields to rise over the next 12 months, the highest proportion since August 2022, reflecting concerns about inflation and central bank policies [24] - In the US sector allocation, investors have increased their exposure to energy, banks, telecommunications, and industrials, while reducing allocations to defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare [25] Group 5 - Japan has regained its position as the most favored market among investors, with a net 21% expecting the Japanese economy to strengthen, a significant improvement from a net 26% expecting weakness in April [26] - In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), participants are overweighting technology stocks while avoiding energy, materials, and real estate [27] - In China, artificial intelligence remains the most favored theme, chosen by 52% of respondents, followed by healthcare [29]