HTSC(SH:601688) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-20 02:21Group 1 - The main driver of the economy in Hong Kong is the financial services sector, with most bank loans linked to the HIBOR interest rate, and a reduction in financing costs is expected to stimulate the credit cycle and invigorate economic activity [1] - The correlation between the year-on-year growth of the Hang Seng Index and the year-on-year change in China's manufacturing PMI is as high as 56%, while the correlation with changes in HIBOR and US Treasury yields is relatively low [1] - Changes in interest rates have a more significant impact on local stocks, as lower interest rates can expand liquidity, reduce leverage costs, and stimulate market activity [1] Group 2 - Economic prosperity is highly correlated with the growth rate of M2, and lower financing costs are expected to boost the economy [1] - The current balance of forces on the RMB exchange rate suggests a low likelihood of significant tightening in HKD liquidity, and any fluctuations due to policy adjustments may create opportunities for increased allocation [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (code: 159519) tracks the state-owned index (code: H11153), which primarily includes state-owned enterprises listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance, and industry [1]