Changjiang Securities(SZ:000783) Ge Long Hui·2025-06-20 09:54Core Insights - The Hong Kong dividend assets have strengthened this year, primarily benefiting from defensive allocation needs after a relative decline in risk appetite. As growth stocks continue to narrow, these defensive assets with stable absolute return capabilities have become a consensus among both domestic and foreign investors [1][3] - Insurance capital has frequently targeted Hong Kong dividend assets this year, driven by the positioning of insurance OCI accounts and a domestic asset shortage. Additionally, the relatively smaller market capitalization of Hong Kong banks compared to A-shares makes them more susceptible to triggering the takeover mechanism [1][4] - The pricing logic of Hong Kong dividend assets is influenced by multiple factors, including foreign investor preferences, changes in global risk-free interest rates, and liquidity discounts relative to A-shares [1][6] - The significant contraction of the AH premium this year has limited its impact on Hong Kong dividend assets in the medium to long term, as the majority of allocation funds come from long-term investors like insurance and social security, which have strong dividend capabilities and high long-term value [1][8] - There is a potential for a filling rights market after the ex-dividend date for high-dividend stocks in both Hong Kong and A-shares, with statistical data indicating that many stocks may see this filling rights market occur around July and August [1][9] Industry Outlook - The second half of the year is a turning point for insurance OCI allocation and accounting standard shifts, with expected incremental insurance funds favoring high-dividend stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong, providing support for the Hong Kong dividend market [2][11] - As of June 17, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has increased by 20.91% since the low on April 8, indicating strong performance in Hong Kong's high-dividend assets, especially in contrast to the pullback of the A-share dividend index [3] - The total cash dividend for Hong Kong stocks in 2024 is projected to reach HKD 1.38 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 10%. The dividend payout ratio is close to 40%, and the average dividend yield is expected to reach 4%, showing improvements compared to 2023 [5] - The pricing of Hong Kong dividend assets is also affected by the ability to short sell, which allows for more efficient pricing compared to A-shares, where liquidity is generally lower, leading to potential undervaluation of many Hong Kong stocks [6][8] - In a potential interest rate cut scenario by the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong dividend assets may benefit from a more favorable liquidity environment, increasing foreign capital interest [7]