席卷全球的国债危机越来越近，“小风波”就是“大风暴”！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to face significant turmoil, with the Federal Reserve likely to intervene only when panic sets in, indicating a potential crisis rather than a minor disturbance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, anticipates a major deleveraging moment in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is being undermined [2][4]. - The ongoing trade war initiated by Trump has led to unusual market behaviors, such as simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating a shift in risk management strategies among investors [4][6]. - The liquidity in the Treasury market remains tight, with the Federal Reserve reducing capital buffers to allow market makers to handle more Treasuries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impact - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have not prompted the expected influx of safe-haven investments into U.S. Treasuries, which traditionally would occur during geopolitical crises [5][8]. - The dollar's initial reaction to the airstrikes was a decline, which is atypical for a safe-haven asset, further indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries [6][8]. - The performance of gold and oil has surged, while Treasuries and the dollar have not attracted safe-haven flows, suggesting a significant shift in market perception [5][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. fiscal management is described as "disastrous," with unrealistic tax and spending policies that could lead to a weaker economic outlook [9]. - A global debt crisis is looming, with long-term bond auctions in developed countries facing issues, driven by unsustainable fiscal policies and declining demand from traditional buyers [10]. - The transition of long-term Treasury purchases from traditional buyers to highly leveraged hedge funds raises the likelihood of a significant crisis in the Treasury market [10].