Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy (01117.HK) anticipates a net loss between RMB 800 million and RMB 1 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net loss of approximately RMB 207 million for the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects cash EBITDA for the current period to be roughly in line with the RMB 1.515 billion recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] - The domestic raw milk market is experiencing a phase of oversupply, leading to a significant decline in market prices compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The sales volume of raw milk is projected to increase by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2024, which helps mitigate the impact of falling prices [1] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - The company is actively eliminating low-yielding cows to improve herd structure, which is expected to enhance key operational metrics [1] - The total number of dairy cows is expected to slightly decrease by June 30, 2025, but the proportion of mature cows is projected to rise to 53%, with average annual yield per mature cow expected to exceed 13 tons [1] Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The fair value reassessment of dairy cows is expected to result in losses between RMB 1.65 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, an increase of RMB 500 million to RMB 700 million compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The fair value loss is a non-cash item and will not adversely affect the company's cash flow, working capital, or ongoing operations [2] - The company believes that as dairy consumption demand recovers, the raw milk market will stabilize, leading to a rebound in prices and significant improvements in profitability [2]
现代牧业(01117.HK)盈警：预计中期净亏损8亿至10亿元