茅台，大跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with Kweichow Moutai's market dynamics significantly impacting the entire supply chain [1] Price Trends - In June, the wholesale prices of Kweichow Moutai showed a downward trend, with the price for the 25-year 53-degree 500ml original and bulk Moutai dropping to 1935 RMB and 1870 RMB respectively on June 23, down from 2020 RMB and 1970 RMB on June 17 [1][3][4] Sales Performance - From January to May, Kweichow Moutai's products experienced stable growth on major e-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall, with significant sales increases during the "6.18" shopping festival [5] - Feedback from distributors indicates that the overall market for Kweichow Moutai has shown strong resilience, maintaining stability despite price fluctuations [5] Stock Market Impact - The decline in Moutai's prices has led to a corresponding adjustment in its stock price, which is approaching the 1400 RMB mark, with a reported price of 1422.83 RMB per share on June 23, down 0.41% [6][7] Market Challenges - Analysts highlight that offline distributors are facing challenges due to price inversions and high inventory levels, which may lead to aggressive selling behaviors that could further depress product prices [8] - The overall baijiu market is experiencing a "volume and price decline" scenario, with a need for recovery anticipated around the upcoming consumption peaks during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [8] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese liquor market is seeing increased concentration, with leading companies demonstrating strong resilience, while overall operational metrics are declining [9] - The industry is in a phase of "stock competition + structural upgrade," requiring companies to enhance quality and efficiency from the supply side while accurately reaching demand from the consumer side to reshape growth logic [9]