方正证券：政策打破钴市场供给过剩预期 对钴金属价格预期乐观

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the world's leading cobalt supplier, accounting for 75.9% of global production in 2024, and its four-month export suspension will significantly alter market supply expectations, leading to a 14.5% price increase to 182,000 CNY/ton [1] - The DRC's cobalt reserves are substantial, with 600,000 tons out of a global total of 1,100,000 tons, representing 54.5%. The DRC's production is projected to be 220,000 tons in 2024, a 21.8% year-on-year increase, and it will contribute 86.5% of the global production increment [1] - The DRC government has strong intentions to stabilize cobalt prices, as evidenced by the price increase following the export ban, with prices rising from 159,000 CNY/ton to 182,000 CNY/ton [3] Group 2 - High copper prices provide the DRC government with the ability to control cobalt production, as local copper companies will continue operations even without exporting associated cobalt products, ensuring tax revenue for the government [2] - The export ban is expected to reshape the oversupply situation in the cobalt market, as the decline in cobalt prices since 2022 was driven by reduced demand from the ternary cathode materials and increased cobalt production from rising copper output [4]