Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report a net loss of 800-1,000 million yuan in H1 2025, compared to a net loss of 210 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to impairment losses and non-cash items, despite stable operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a cash EBITDA for H1 2025 to be roughly the same as last year’s 1,520 million yuan [1] - The expected impairment losses from the fair value reassessment of dairy cows are projected to be between 1,650-1,850 million yuan, an increase of 500-700 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The average annual yield per dairy cow is expected to exceed 13 tons per head, with the proportion of mature cows increasing to 53% [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company is actively eliminating low-yielding cows, which is part of its strategy to improve herd structure and control operational costs [1] - The sales volume of raw milk is expected to increase by approximately 10% year-on-year [1] - The company has effectively controlled the sales cost of milk, with an anticipated reduction of over 0.22 yuan/kg in sales costs for H1 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The current dairy price adjustment is primarily driven by supply-demand mismatches, with a clear direction towards capacity reduction in the industry [2] - The number of dairy cows is expected to decline year-on-year, reflecting the responsibility of leading dairy enterprises in the industry [2] - The price of live cattle has rebounded in 2025, which may encourage farms to increase the culling of cows [2]
现代牧业(1117.HK)：减值拖累表观利润 实际经营稳健