Core Insights - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, accounting for 7.48% of the $3.35 trillion cryptocurrency market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 80% over the past five years, establishing a duopoly between USDT and USDC, which together hold 84% of the market share [1][17][29] - Circle, as the issuer of USDC, is set to go public on June 5, 2025, on the NYSE, with its stock price increasing over 675% within ten days of listing. Its business model primarily relies on interest income from reserve assets, which constitutes over 99% of its total revenue [1][4][31] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. provides a regulatory framework for the stablecoin market, focusing on issuer qualifications, reserve requirements, compliance, and consumer protection, aiming to foster innovation while maintaining financial stability [1][11][12] Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with USDT holding 60% and USDC holding 24% of the market share. USDC is backed by U.S. Treasury bonds and a 1:1 reserve of U.S. dollars, emphasizing compliance and transparency [1][17][29] - Circle's partnership with Coinbase is strategic, with Circle projected to pay Coinbase $900 million in distribution fees in 2024, representing 54% of its total revenue. This collaboration enhances USDC's integration into Coinbase's ecosystem, increasing its share of USDC from 5% in 2022 to 23% in Q1 2025 [2][20][25] Coinbase's Business Performance - Coinbase maintains a market share of 6%-7% in the cryptocurrency exchange sector, with a highly compliant business model that facilitated its status as the first publicly listed digital asset exchange in the U.S. [3][35] - In 2024, Coinbase's trading commission revenue is expected to reach $3.986 billion, a 262% year-over-year increase, while subscription and service revenue is projected at $2.307 billion, a 164% increase. Retail customers contribute over 90% of trading revenue, with stablecoin revenue accounting for 15% of total income [3][4][35] Financial Projections for Circle - The stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, with a neutral assumption of a 50% CAGR, estimating a market size of approximately $1.1 trillion by 2028 and $2.5 trillion by 2030 [4][26][29] - Circle's revenue is closely tied to the market capitalization of USDC and Federal Reserve interest rates, with total revenue expected to reach $1.676 billion in 2024 and $2.58 billion in 2025 [4][28] Expanding Use Cases for Stablecoins - The application of stablecoins is rapidly expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading to include cross-border payments, foreign exchange savings, and decentralized finance (DeFi) [5][29] - For instance, USDC offers an annualized interest rate of 3.68% on the Ethereum-based Compound lending platform, showcasing its advantages in the DeFi space compared to other assets [5][32]
互联网Ⅱ行业专题：从Circle上市，探索稳定币与交易所的合作模式