马斯克把Robotaxi捧上天，这里是不看好的5大理由

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed opinions surrounding Tesla's Robotaxi initiative, highlighting skepticism from some experts while others express optimism about its potential impact on the company's future valuation and business model [2][16][17]. Group 1: Expert Opinions - Michael Smitka, an economics professor, is skeptical about the success of Robotaxi, citing high operational costs and limited market size as major concerns [3][4]. - Horizon founder Yu Kai also views Robotaxi as a minor trend, emphasizing that true personalization is the larger trend in the industry [3]. - Some analysts believe that the valuation of Robotaxi could reach nearly $1 trillion by 2029, significantly surpassing traditional vehicle sales profits [14]. Group 2: Tesla's Robotaxi Launch - Tesla initiated a trial run of Robotaxi in Austin, Texas, with 10-20 vehicles, although reports suggest up to 35 vehicles may have been deployed [5][6]. - The service operates on an invitation-only basis and utilizes the Tesla App for ride requests, with a fixed fare of $4.20 per trip [6][7]. - Feedback from users has been generally positive, though there have been reports of navigation issues and misjudgments by the vehicle [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the launch of Robotaxi, Tesla's stock price surged over 8%, with analysts raising the target price from $350 to $500, projecting a market cap of $2 trillion [13]. - Some analysts argue that Robotaxi represents a critical step towards Tesla's vision of becoming a platform company, while others caution against over-optimism [16][17]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Texas has a relatively lenient regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles, allowing Tesla to operate without special permits [20]. - In contrast, California has stricter regulations, requiring multiple permits for testing and commercial operation, which Tesla has yet to secure [21][22]. - The regulatory landscape is expected to tighten in Texas by 2025, necessitating more comprehensive safety documentation from Robotaxi operators [20]. Group 5: Future Developments - Tesla plans to deploy 1,000 Robotaxis within months and expand to 25 cities by the end of 2025, competing directly with Waymo [8][9]. - The company aims to introduce new models specifically designed for autonomous driving, such as Cybercab and Robovan, by 2026-2027 [10]. - Tesla is developing a comprehensive cleaning system for its Robotaxi fleet to maintain hygiene without human intervention, addressing a key operational challenge [24][25].