Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, as a rising star in the industry, has demonstrated strong learning and innovation capabilities, creating a unique integrated breeding model for family farms that has achieved leading breeding results [1] Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - The number of family farms empowered by the company increased from 2,011 at the end of 2020 to 2,608 by May 2023, with the number of pigs served rising from 1.22 million in 2020 to 4.21 million in 2022 [2] - The company plans to increase the number of empowered family farms to 3,275, 4,500, and 6,200 by 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected pig numbers reaching 9.65 million, 13.50 million, and 18.50 million during the same period [2] - The company's breeding costs are industry-leading, with a projected total cost of 12.27 yuan per kilogram by April 2025, indicating a profit of 348 yuan per head [2] Group 2: Industry Context and Competitive Advantage - The family farm model is highly viable under the rural revitalization strategy, with the "company + family farm" model providing significant policy advantages and reducing environmental and disease risks compared to large-scale self-breeding [3] - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly post-African swine fever, with the top 26 pig companies' market share rising from 7% in 2017 to an expected 33% in 2024 [3] - The company’s cost control is attributed to its advanced breeding system, strong corporate culture, and innovative production model, which collectively enhance its competitive edge [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 28.22 billion, 33.75 billion, and 46.32 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.70 billion, 3.67 billion, and 6.97 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 9.52, 9.43, and 17.92 yuan, with a target price of 120 Hong Kong dollars based on comparable company valuations [4]
德康农牧(2419.HK)：星星之火 可以燎原