YADEA(HK:01585) Ge Long Hui·2025-06-26 03:03Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a forecasted increase of over 55% year-on-year, driven by product optimization and favorable industry policies [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has maintained its position as the global leader in electric two-wheeled vehicles, with sales increasing from 4.06 million units in 2017 to 13.02 million units in 2024, marking a consistent growth over eight years [1] - The company has over 40,000 stores as of the end of 2024, indicating a strong retail presence [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of no less than 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from a decline in 2024 where revenue and net profit fell by 19% and 52% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The domestic market is benefiting from a concentration of industry resources towards leading companies, with the "old-for-new" policy stimulating high growth, resulting in 6.5 million electric bicycles being replaced from January to May [2] - The new national standards set to be implemented on September 1 are expected to further consolidate market share among top enterprises, with the company positioned to benefit from these policy changes [2] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has launched its first electric vehicle from its Mexican factory in May [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its gross margin assumptions upward due to product structure optimization, forecasting net profits of 2.986 billion yuan and 3.507 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, which represent increases of 8.51% and 9.12% [2] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.01 yuan and 1.18 yuan respectively, with a further forecast of 3.826 billion yuan and an EPS of 1.29 yuan for 2027 [2] - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 19.61 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.82 for 2025 [2]