POP MART(HK:09992) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-26 03:40Core Viewpoint - The blind box economy, particularly the LABUBU series from Pop Mart, has experienced extreme fluctuations, with a recent auction fetching 1.08 million yuan and a market drop of 22.3 billion HKD in a single day, highlighting the volatility and demand in this sector [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LABUBU blind boxes have seen a massive surge in demand, with secondary market prices skyrocketing, such as a 99 yuan box selling for as much as 2548 yuan, indicating a profit margin exceeding 20 times [5][12]. - The phenomenon has led to significant involvement from scalpers, who capitalize on the limited supply, with one scalper noting that prices remain high as long as there is no restock [3][5]. - Pop Mart's initial underestimation of the LABUBU's popularity has resulted in a supply-demand imbalance, which has been misinterpreted as a strategy of "hunger marketing" [3][12]. Group 2: Sales and Revenue Growth - The blind box market in China is projected to exceed 58 billion yuan by 2025, capturing 65% of the global market share, with a compound annual growth rate of 28% [17]. - Pop Mart's overall revenue is expected to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with domestic revenue increasing by 95%-100% [18]. - International revenue has also seen remarkable growth, with a 475%-480% increase, particularly in the Americas, which surged by 895%-900% [19]. Group 3: Product and IP Strategy - The LABUBU series has significantly contributed to Pop Mart's revenue, generating 3.04 billion yuan, which accounts for 23.3% of total revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 726.6% [19]. - Pop Mart is actively developing new IPs, such as the Crybaby series, which is projected to grow by 1537.2% in revenue in 2024, aiming to diversify beyond reliance on a single IP [20]. - The company plans to expand production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia by the second half of 2025 to address ongoing supply shortages of LABUBU plush products [20].